First Citizens Bancshares (TN) (First Citizens Bancshares (TN)) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.00% (As of Apr. 27, 2024)

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What is First Citizens Bancshares (TN) Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, First Citizens Bancshares (TN)'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of First Citizens Bancshares (TN)'s Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Banks - Regional subindustry, First Citizens Bancshares (TN)'s Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

First Citizens Bancshares (TN)'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Banks Industry

For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, First Citizens Bancshares (TN)'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where First Citizens Bancshares (TN)'s Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.

First Citizens Bancshares (TN) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

0.00

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	0.00%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

(Balance Sheet Cash And Cash Equivalents + Money Market Investments)

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

First Citizens Bancshares (TN) (OTCPK:FIZN) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

First Citizens Bancshares (TN) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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First Citizens Bancshares (TN) (First Citizens Bancshares (TN)) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » First Citizens Bancshares Inc (TN) (OTCPK:FIZN) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4300 Six Forks Road, Raleigh, NC, USA, 27609

Website

https://www.firstcitizens.com

First Citizens Bancshares Inc (TN) is a financial holding company. The bank offers various services such as checking accounts, savings accounts, mobile and tablet banking, digital banking, loans, insurance and other banking services. The company operates its business in four segments, 1) General Banking which offers a full suite of deposit products, loans, cash management, wealth, payments and various other fee-based services., 2) Commercial Banking segment provides a range of lending, leasing, capital markets, asset management and other financial and advisory services to small and middle market companies, 3) Rail offers customized leasing and financing solutions on a fleet of railcars and locomotives to railroads and shippers throughout North America and 4) Corporate.