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The Carlyle Group (The Carlyle Group) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.04% (As of Apr. 27, 2024)


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What is The Carlyle Group Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, The Carlyle Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.04%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of The Carlyle Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Asset Management subindustry, The Carlyle Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

The Carlyle Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Asset Management Industry

For the Asset Management industry and Financial Services sector, The Carlyle Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where The Carlyle Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


The Carlyle Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.75

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.04%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=(Balance Sheet Cash And Cash Equivalents + Money Market Investments) / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB=Market Cap / Adjusted Book Equity
=Market Cap / (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

The Carlyle Group  (NAS:CG) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

The Carlyle Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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The Carlyle Group (The Carlyle Group) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » The Carlyle Group Inc (NAS:CG) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)
Comparable Companies
ARCC BEN CRBG SEIC NTRS IVZ OWL FSK BXSL PDI BLK BX OSTO:INVE A TSX:BN KKR APO BK AMP XSWX:PGHN LSE:III
Traded in Other Exchanges
CG:Mexico 3VU:Germany 3VU:Germany
Address
1001 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Washington, DC, USA, 20004-2505
Website
https://www.carlyle.com
The Carlyle Group is one of the world's largest alternative-asset managers, with $382.3 billion in total assets under management, including $273.0 billion in fee-earning AUM, at the end of September 2023. The company has three core business segments: private equity, which includes private equity, real estate, infrastructure, and natural resources funds (accounting for 40% of fee-earning AUM and 64% of base management fees during 2023), global credit (46% and 25%) and investment solutions (14% and 11%). The firm primarily serves institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals. Carlyle operates through 29 offices across five continents, serving more than 2,900 active carry fund investors from 88 countries.
Executives
Harvey M Schwartz director, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O GOLDMAN SACHS & CO. LLC, 200 WEST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10282
John C. Redett officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP, 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE NW, SUITE 220 S, WASHINGTON DC 20004
Jeffrey W. Ferguson officer: General Counsel C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP L.P., 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20004-2505
Andrews Charles Elliott Jr. officer: Chief Accounting Officer 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20004
Curtis L. Buser officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP L.P., 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20004-2505
Christopher Finn officer: Chief Operating Officer C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP, 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W., WASHINGTON DC 20004
Bruce M. Larson officer: Chief Human Resources Officer C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP, SUITE 220 SOUTH, 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W., WASHINGTON DC 20004
Sharda Cherwoo director 160 WEST 66TH STREET, APT. 45F, NEW YORK NY 10023
David M. Rubenstein director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP L.P., 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20004
Mark S Ordan director 7315 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE #250 WEST, BETHESDA MD 20814
Linda Filler director 2200 PENNSYLVANIA AVE NW, SUITE 800W, WASHINGTON DC 20037
Kewsong Lee director, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Daniel A. D'aniello director, 10 percent owner, officer: Founder, Chairman Emeritus C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP L.P., 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20004-2505
Thomas S Robertson director 200 CLARENDON STREET, T-33, BOSTON MA 02116
Peter J Clare director, officer: Co-Chief Investment Officer