Arch Capital Group (Arch Capital Group) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.02% (As of Apr. 27, 2024)

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What is Arch Capital Group Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Arch Capital Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of Arch Capital Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Insurance - Diversified subindustry, Arch Capital Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Arch Capital Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Insurance Industry

For the Insurance industry and Financial Services sector, Arch Capital Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Arch Capital Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.

Arch Capital Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

-8.58

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	0.02%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For insurance companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

(Balance Sheet Cash And Cash Equivalents + Short-term investments)

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

Arch Capital Group (NAS:ACGL) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Arch Capital Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Arch Capital Group (Arch Capital Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Arch Capital Group Ltd (NAS:ACGL) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ACGLN.PFD:USA ACGLO.PFD:USA RSK:Germany RSK:Germany

Address

100 Pitts Bay Road, Waterloo House, Ground Floor, Pembroke, BMU, HM 08

Website

https://www.archgroup.com

Arch Capital Group Ltd is a Bermuda company which writes insurance and reinsurance with operations in Bermuda, the United States, Canada, Europe, Australia and South Africa. The business operates through three segments: insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage. The insurance segment provides specialty risk solutions to clients worldwide across a variety of industries. The reinsurance segment provides reinsurance services which cover property catastrophe, property, liability, marine, aviation and space, trade credit and surety, agriculture, accident, life and health, and political risk. The mortgage business provides risk management and risk financing products to the mortgage insurance sectors through platforms in the U.S., Europe and Bermuda.

Executives

Nicolas Papadopoulo	other: Officer of Subsidiary	WESSEX HOUSE, 3RD FLOOR, 45 REID STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM 12
Marc Grandisson	officer: Officer of Subsidiary	C/O ARCH REINSURANCE LTD, WESSEX HOUSE 45 REID ST, HAMILTON BERMUDA D0 999999999
David Gansberg	officer: CEO, Global Mortgage Group	230 NORTH ELM STREET, GREENSBORO NC 27401
Louis T Petrillo	officer: President, Gen Counsel & Secr.	C/O ARCH CAPITAL SERVICES INC, 20 HORSENECK LANE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Maamoun Rajeh	officer: Chairman & CEO Arch Re Group	WATERLOO HOUSE, GROUND FLOOR, 100 PITTS BAY ROAD, PEMBROKE D0 HM08
Francois Morin	officer: EVP and CFO	WATERLOO HOUSE, GROUND FLOOR, 100 PITTS BAY ROAD, PEMBROKE D0 HM08
Bunce John L Jr	director	C/O WESTERN WIRELESS CORP, 3650 131ST AVE. S.E . #400, BELLEVUE WA 98006
Brian S Posner	director	14 CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
John M Pasquesi	director	C/O OTTER CAPITAL, ONE MARITIME PLAZA SUITE 1400, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Francis Ebong	director	WATERLOO HOUSE, GROUND FLOOR, 100 PITTS BAY ROAD, PEMBROKE D0 HM08
Eileen A Mallesch	director	3776 SOUTH HIGH ST, COLUMBUS OH 43207
Christine Todd	officer: SVP & Chief Investment Officer	C/O ARCH CAPITAL GROUP LTD, WATERLOO HOUSE, 100 PITTS BAY ROAD, PEMBROKE D0 HM08
W Preston Hutchings	officer: SVP & Chief Investment Officer	WESSEX HOUSE 45 REID STREET, 4TH FLOOR, HAMILTON D0 HM12
Moira A. Kilcoyne	director	632 HUDSON STREET, HOBOKEN NJ 07030
Thomas R Watjen	director	UNUM GROUP, 1 FOUNTAIN SQUARE, CHATTANOOGA TN 37402