What's Driving Lumen Technologies Inc's Surprising 49% Stock Rally?

Lumen Technologies Inc (LUMN, Financial) has experienced a remarkable surge in its stock price, with a 37.21% gain over the past week and an impressive 48.74% gain over the past three months. The current market capitalization stands at $1.79 billion, with the stock price at $1.77. Despite these gains, the GF Value is set at $7.99, down from the past GF Value of $8.68. This discrepancy between the stock price and GF Value has led to a valuation status of "Possible Value Trap, Think Twice," which has remained unchanged from the past valuation. This suggests that investors should exercise caution and thoroughly evaluate the company's fundamentals before making investment decisions.

Company Overview

Lumen Technologies Inc, operating in the Telecommunication Services industry, is a major player with a vast network of 450,000 route miles of fiber. The company's strategic merger with Level 3 in 2017 and the recent divestiture of its ILEC business have pivoted its focus towards enterprise services, which now generate nearly 80% of its revenue. Lumen offers a comprehensive suite of communication services to businesses, including colocation, data center services, data transportation, and end-user connectivity. On the consumer front, Lumen serves 4.5 million broadband customers across 37 states. 1757407661068021760.png

Assessing Profitability

Lumen Technologies' Profitability Rank is currently 6/10, indicating a moderate level of profitability. The company's Operating Margin of 8.45% is better than 47.53% of its industry peers. However, the Return on Equity (ROE) is at a concerning -195.39%, which is still better than 2.13% of industry peers. The Return on Assets (ROA) stands at -26.11%, surpassing 7.38% of peers, and the Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is 3.41%, outperforming 41.98% of competitors. Over the past decade, Lumen has maintained profitability for five years, ranking better than 32.27% of its industry counterparts. 1757407679464239104.png

Growth Trajectory

The company's Growth Rank is a low 2/10. Lumen's 3-Year Revenue Growth Rate per Share has declined by 8.30%, which is still better than 16.94% of industry peers. The 5-Year Revenue Growth Rate per Share also decreased by 6.30%, outperforming 20.76% of peers. Looking ahead, the Total Revenue Growth Rate (Future 3Y To 5Y Est) is projected at -8.89%, which is better than only 0.92% of industry peers. The 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate has fallen by 34.10%, yet this is better than 9.87% of peers. The EPS Growth Rate (Future 3Y To 5Y Est) is expected to be -47.23%, which is not better than any peers. These figures indicate significant challenges ahead for Lumen in terms of revenue and earnings growth. 1757407697176784896.png

Investor Holdings

Notable investors in Lumen Technologies include Paul Tudor Jones (Trades, Portfolio), holding 2,605,923 shares, representing a 0.26% share percentage. Caxton Associates (Trades, Portfolio) owns 786,588 shares, equating to a 0.08% share percentage, while Arnold Van Den Berg (Trades, Portfolio) holds 632,517 shares, or 0.06% of the company. These positions reflect the confidence of seasoned investors in the company's potential despite the current challenges.

Competitive Landscape

When compared to its competitors, Lumen Technologies stands in the middle of the pack in terms of market capitalization. IHS Holding Ltd (IHS, Financial) has a market cap of $1.13 billion, Liberty Latin America Ltd (LILA, Financial) is valued at $1.44 billion, and Altice USA Inc (ATUS, Financial) comes in at $1 billion. This positioning suggests that Lumen is competing effectively in terms of size within its industry.

Conclusion

In summary, Lumen Technologies Inc has seen a significant uptick in its stock price, but the GF Valuation advises caution. The company's profitability metrics are mixed, with some indicators showing strength relative to industry peers, while others, particularly ROE and ROA, raise concerns. Growth prospects appear challenging, with negative trends in revenue and EPS growth rates. However, the presence of notable investors may signal underlying value not fully reflected in the current stock price. When juxtaposed with its competitors, Lumen's market cap suggests it is holding its own in the telecommunication services sector. Investors should weigh these factors carefully when considering Lumen Technologies as a potential addition to their portfolios.

This article, generated by GuruFocus, is designed to provide general insights and is not tailored financial advice. Our commentary is rooted in historical data and analyst projections, utilizing an impartial methodology, and is not intended to serve as specific investment guidance. It does not formulate a recommendation to purchase or divest any stock and does not consider individual investment objectives or financial circumstances. Our objective is to deliver long-term, fundamental data-driven analysis. Be aware that our analysis might not incorporate the most recent, price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative information. GuruFocus holds no position in the stocks mentioned herein.

Disclosures

I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.