What's Driving Lumentum Holdings Inc's Surprising 27% Stock Rally?

Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE, Financial), a provider of optical and photonic products, has experienced a significant fluctuation in its stock price recently. With a market capitalization of $3.38 billion, the company's shares are currently trading at $50.21. Over the past week, LITE's stock has seen an 11.11% decline, yet when looking at the past three months, there has been a notable 27.04% gain. This recent performance has caught the attention of investors, especially when considering the GF Value of $75.29, which suggests a potential undervaluation. However, the current and past GF Valuations both indicate a "Possible Value Trap, Think Twice" status, urging investors to be cautious.

Company Overview

Lumentum Holdings Inc, operating in the hardware industry, is a California-based technology firm that specializes in optical components for telecommunications and commercial lasers for various applications. The company's products are essential in carrier networks and are increasingly used in new optical applications like 3-D sensing laser diodes for consumer electronics. The majority of Lumentum's revenue comes from its OpComms segment, which includes a broad range of components, modules, and subsystems. 1757045227731972096.png

Assessing Profitability

When it comes to profitability, Lumentum Holdings Inc has a Profitability Rank of 6/10. The company's operating margin stands at -18.88%, which is better than 14.08% of 2,451 companies in the same industry. Its Return on Equity (ROE) is -18.97%, surpassing 13.33% of its peers, while the Return on Assets (ROA) at -5.89% is better than 20.23% of the industry. The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is -10.92%, which is also higher than 16.23% of competitors. Lumentum has maintained profitability for 6 out of the past 10 years, which is more favorable than 37.9% of the companies. 1757045246283378688.png

Growth Trajectory

The company's Growth Rank is 7/10, reflecting a solid trajectory. Lumentum's 3-year revenue growth rate per share is 6.10%, outperforming 54.59% of 2,321 companies in the industry. The 5-year revenue growth rate per share is 4.40%, which is better than 55.46% of 2,144 companies. However, the estimated total revenue growth rate for the next 3 to 5 years is a modest 0.27%, higher than 17.46% of the industry. The 3-year EPS without NRI growth rate is an impressive 34.20%, and the 5-year rate is even more remarkable at 55.80%, surpassing 73.73% and 95.25% of their peers, respectively. 1757045264591515648.png

Notable Shareholders

Among the notable investors in Lumentum Holdings Inc are Ken Fisher (Trades, Portfolio), holding 583,635 shares (0.87%), Jim Simons (Trades, Portfolio) with 553,200 shares (0.83%), and Steven Cohen (Trades, Portfolio) owning 126,724 shares (0.19%). These holdings reflect the confidence of seasoned investors in the company's potential.

Competitive Landscape

Lumentum operates in a competitive industry, with key players like Extreme Networks Inc (EXTR, Financial) with a market cap of $1.62 billion, Belden Inc (BDC, Financial) at $3.47 billion, and Viasat Inc (VSAT, Financial) valued at $2.5 billion. These companies are closely matched in market capitalization, indicating a highly competitive environment for Lumentum.

Conclusion

In summary, Lumentum Holdings Inc's stock has demonstrated a significant rally over the past three months, despite a recent dip. The company's valuation, as indicated by the GF Value, suggests that the stock might be undervalued, but the consistent "Possible Value Trap" warning advises caution. Lumentum's profitability metrics, although mixed, show resilience in a competitive industry. The company's growth rates in revenue and EPS are promising, and the presence of high-profile investors adds to its credibility. When compared to its competitors, Lumentum holds a strong market position, but investors should carefully consider the company's long-term potential and current market dynamics before making investment decisions.

This article, generated by GuruFocus, is designed to provide general insights and is not tailored financial advice. Our commentary is rooted in historical data and analyst projections, utilizing an impartial methodology, and is not intended to serve as specific investment guidance. It does not formulate a recommendation to purchase or divest any stock and does not consider individual investment objectives or financial circumstances. Our objective is to deliver long-term, fundamental data-driven analysis. Be aware that our analysis might not incorporate the most recent, price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative information. GuruFocus holds no position in the stocks mentioned herein.

Disclosures

I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.