What's Driving Mattel Inc's Surprising 20% Stock Rally?

Over the past week, Mattel Inc's (MAT, Financial) stock price has seen a gain of 3.55%, and over the past three months, the stock has surged by an impressive 20.11%. The company's market cap stands at $7.84 billion, with the stock price currently at $22.13. The GF Value, defined by GuruFocus.com, calculates a stock's intrinsic value using historical multiples, past performance adjustments, and future business estimates. The GF Value for Mattel Inc is $20.57, indicating that the stock is fairly valued. Three months ago, the GF Value was $20.3, suggesting that the stock was modestly undervalued at that time.

Unpacking Mattel Inc's Business Model

Mattel Inc, a prominent player in the Travel & Leisure industry, is renowned for marketing toy products that are sold to its wholesale customers and direct to retail consumers. The company's product portfolio includes toys for infants and preschoolers, girls and boys, youth electronics, handheld and other games, puzzles, educational toys, media-driven products, and plush and fashion-related toys. Mattel's owned portfolio includes Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, Thomas & Friends, and American Girl. The company manufactures toy products for its segments both internally and externally through manufacturing partners. Nearly 60% of its net sales are generated from North America, with the remainder stemming from international markets.1707051412422131712.png

Profitability Analysis

As of June 30, 2023, Mattel Inc's Profitability Rank stands at 7/10, indicating a strong profitability position relative to its industry peers. The company's Operating Margin is 8.26%, better than 54.58% of the companies in the industry. The ROE is 11.75%, outperforming 68.45% of the companies, while the ROA is 3.71%, better than 62.94% of the companies. The ROIC is 6.74%, surpassing 68.52% of the companies. Over the past decade, Mattel Inc has demonstrated profitability for seven years, outperforming 61.7% of the companies in the industry.1707051432877752320.png

Growth Prospects

Mattel Inc's Growth Rank is 3/10, indicating moderate growth potential. The company's 3-Year Revenue Growth Rate per Share is 5.10%, better than 66.41% of the companies in the industry. The 5-Year Revenue Growth Rate per Share is 2.30%, outperforming 72% of the companies. The company's future Total Revenue Growth Rate (3Y To 5Y Est) is projected at 2.68%, better than 17.99% of the companies. The future EPS Growth Rate (3Y To 5Y Est) is estimated at 10.96%, outperforming 11.54% of the companies.1707051449818546176.png

Major Stock Holders

PRIMECAP Management (Trades, Portfolio) is the largest holder of Mattel Inc's stock, holding 42,108,859 shares, which represents 11.89% of the total shares. John Rogers (Trades, Portfolio) holds the second-largest number of shares, with 16,466,014 shares, representing 4.65% of the total shares. Mason Hawkins (Trades, Portfolio) holds 9,324,247 shares, accounting for 2.63% of the total shares.

Competitive Landscape

Mattel Inc faces stiff competition from Hasbro Inc (HAS, Financial) with a stock market cap of $9.15 billion, YETI Holdings Inc (YETI, Financial) with a market cap of $4.03 billion, and Planet Fitness Inc (PLNT, Financial) with a market cap of $3.84 billion.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Mattel Inc's stock has shown impressive performance over the past three months, with a surge of 20.11%. The company's strong profitability and moderate growth potential, coupled with its robust product portfolio and market distribution, make it a compelling consideration for investors. However, the competitive landscape and future growth projections should also be taken into account when making investment decisions.

Disclosures

I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.