Li Auto Inc's Meteoric Rise: Unpacking the 31% Surge in Just 3 Months

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Li Auto Inc (LI, Financial), a leading player in the Vehicles & Parts industry, has seen a significant surge in its stock price over the past three months. The company's stock price has risen by 31.38% over the past quarter, closing at $41.05 as of September 12, 2023. This impressive performance has pushed the company's market capitalization to $41.09 billion, reflecting the growing investor confidence in the company's prospects.

Stock Performance Analysis

Over the past week, Li Auto's stock price has seen a gain of 2.78%, continuing its upward trajectory. The company's GF Value, a measure of intrinsic value defined by GuruFocus.com, stands at $92.72, indicating that the stock is significantly undervalued. This is a notable shift from the GF Valuation three months ago, which suggested a possible value trap, urging investors to think twice before investing.

Company Overview

Li Auto is a prominent Chinese New Energy Vehicle (NEV) manufacturer that designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium smart NEVs. The company started volume production of its first model, Li One, in November 2019. This six-seater, large, premium plug-in electric SUV equipped with a range extension system and advanced smart vehicle solutions, has been well-received in the market. In 2022, the company sold over 133,000 NEVs, accounting for about 2% of China's passenger new energy vehicle market. Beyond Li One, the company plans to expand its product line, including both BEVs and PHEVs, to target a broader consumer base.1701616292433231872.png

Profitability Analysis

Despite its impressive stock performance, Li Auto's Profitability Rank stands at 2/10, indicating potential challenges. The company's Operating Margin is -0.35%, better than 19.59% of the companies in the industry. Its ROE and ROA stand at 3.97% and 2.06% respectively, outperforming 38.2% and 42.94% of the companies in the industry. However, its ROIC of -1.23% is better than only 19.6% of the companies in the industry.1701616310623928320.png

Growth Prospects

Li Auto has demonstrated impressive growth, with a 3-year revenue growth rate per share of 429.80%, outperforming 99.75% of the companies in the industry. The company's future total revenue growth rate estimate stands at 73.86%, better than 99.5% of the companies in the industry. Furthermore, its 3-year EPS without NRI growth rate is 18.70%, better than 63.26% of the companies in the industry.1701616327896072192.png

Major Stock Holders

Jim Simons (Trades, Portfolio) is the largest holder of Li Auto's stock, with 7,598,400 shares, accounting for 0.78% of the company's shares. The second-largest holder is iShares MSCI ACWI ex U.S. ETF (Trades, Portfolio), with 206,106 shares, accounting for 0.02% of the company's shares. Philippe Laffont (Trades, Portfolio) holds 132,835 shares, accounting for 0.01% of the company's shares.

Competitive Landscape

Li Auto operates in a highly competitive industry, with major competitors including Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN, Financial) with a market cap of $22.72 billion, XPeng Inc (XPEV, Financial) with a market cap of $16.16 billion, and NIO Inc (NIO, Financial) with a market cap of $19.21 billion.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Li Auto has demonstrated impressive stock performance over the past three months, with a significant surge in its stock price. Despite potential profitability challenges, the company's growth prospects remain strong, backed by its impressive revenue growth rate and future total revenue growth rate estimates. However, the company operates in a highly competitive industry, and it will be crucial for it to maintain its growth momentum to stay ahead of its competitors.

Disclosures

I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.