The stock of Trip.com Group (NAS:TCOM, 30-year Financials) appears to be modestly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $28.86 per share and the market cap of $18.4 billion, Trip.com Group stock gives every indication of being modestly overvalued. GF Value for Trip.com Group is shown in the chart below.
Because Trip.com Group is relatively overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be lower than its business growth, which is estimated to grow 7.91% annually over the next three to five years.
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It is always important to check the financial strength of a company before buying its stock. Investing in companies with poor financial strength have a higher risk of permanent loss. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage is a great way to understand the financial strength of a company. Trip.com Group has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.83, which is in the middle range of the companies in Travel & Leisure industry. The overall financial strength of Trip.com Group is 4 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of Trip.com Group is poor. This is the debt and cash of Trip.com Group over the past years:
It poses less risk to invest in profitable companies, especially those that have demonstrated consistent profitability over the long term. A company with high profit margins is also typically a safer investment than one with low profit margins. Trip.com Group has been profitable 8 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $2.6 billion and earnings of $0.965 a share. Its operating margin is -3.96%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Travel & Leisure industry. Overall, GuruFocus ranks the profitability of Trip.com Group at 5 out of 10, which indicates fair profitability. This is the revenue and net income of Trip.com Group over the past years:
One of the most important factors in the valuation of a company is growth. Long-term stock performance is closely correlated with growth according to GuruFocus research. Companies that grow faster create more value for shareholders, especially if that growth is profitable. The average annual revenue growth of Trip.com Group is -13%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Travel & Leisure industry. The 3-year average EBITDA growth is -29.7%, which ranks worse than 79% of the companies in Travel & Leisure industry.
One can also evaluate a company’s profitability by comparing its return on invested capital (ROIC) to its weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. If the return on invested capital exceeds the weighted average cost of capital, the company is likely creating value for its shareholders. During the past 12 months, Trip.com Group’s ROIC is -0.34 while its WACC came in at 7.56. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Trip.com Group is shown below:
To conclude, the stock of Trip.com Group (NAS:TCOM, 30-year Financials) is estimated to be modestly overvalued. The company's financial condition is poor and its profitability is fair. Its growth ranks worse than 79% of the companies in Travel & Leisure industry. To learn more about Trip.com Group stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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