The stock of Urban Outfitters (NAS:URBN, 30-year Financials) gives every indication of being significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $37.36 per share and the market cap of $3.7 billion, Urban Outfitters stock is estimated to be significantly overvalued. GF Value for Urban Outfitters is shown in the chart below.
Because Urban Outfitters is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth, which averaged 2.9% over the past three years and is estimated to grow 3.10% annually over the next three to five years.
Link: These companies may deliever higher future returns at reduced risk.
Companies with poor financial strength offer investors a high risk of permanent capital loss. To avoid permanent capital loss, an investor must do their research and review a company's financial strength before deciding to purchase shares. Both the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage of a company are a great way to to understand its financial strength. Urban Outfitters has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.43, which which ranks in the middle range of the companies in the industry of Retail - Cyclical. The overall financial strength of Urban Outfitters is 5 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of Urban Outfitters is fair. This is the debt and cash of Urban Outfitters over the past years:
It poses less risk to invest in profitable companies, especially those that have demonstrated consistent profitability over the long term. A company with high profit margins is also typically a safer investment than one with low profit margins. Urban Outfitters has been profitable 10 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $3.4 billion and earnings of $0.01 a share. Its operating margin is 0.12%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in the industry of Retail - Cyclical. Overall, GuruFocus ranks the profitability of Urban Outfitters at 7 out of 10, which indicates fair profitability. This is the revenue and net income of Urban Outfitters over the past years:
Growth is probably the most important factor in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long term stock performance of a company. A faster growing company creates more value for shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. The 3-year average annual revenue growth of Urban Outfitters is 2.9%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in the industry of Retail - Cyclical. The 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is -31.3%, which ranks in the bottom 10% of the companies in the industry of Retail - Cyclical.
Another method of determining the profitability of a company is to compare its return on invested capital to the weighted average cost of capital. Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. When the ROIC is higher than the WACC, it implies the company is creating value for shareholders. For the past 12 months, Urban Outfitters's return on invested capital is 0.05, and its cost of capital is 8.87. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Urban Outfitters is shown below:
To conclude, the stock of Urban Outfitters (NAS:URBN, 30-year Financials) is believed to be significantly overvalued. The company's financial condition is fair and its profitability is fair. Its growth ranks in the bottom 10% of the companies in the industry of Retail - Cyclical. To learn more about Urban Outfitters stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
To find out the high quality companies that may deliever above average returns, please check out GuruFocus High Quality Low Capex Screener.
