The stock of Mueller Industries (NYSE:MLI, 30-year Financials) is estimated to be significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $46.92 per share and the market cap of $2.7 billion, Mueller Industries stock gives every indication of being significantly overvalued. GF Value for Mueller Industries is shown in the chart below.
Because Mueller Industries is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth, which averaged 2.6% over the past five years.
Link: These companies may deliever higher future returns at reduced risk.
It is always important to check the financial strength of a company before buying its stock. Investing in companies with poor financial strength have a higher risk of permanent loss. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage is a great way to understand the financial strength of a company. Mueller Industries has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.31, which is worse than 78% of the companies in Industrial Products industry. The overall financial strength of Mueller Industries is 6 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of Mueller Industries is fair. This is the debt and cash of Mueller Industries over the past years:
It is less risky to invest in profitable companies, especially those with consistent profitability over long term. A company with high profit margins is usually a safer investment than those with low profit margins. Mueller Industries has been profitable 10 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $2.6 billion and earnings of $3.01 a share. Its operating margin is 10.53%, which ranks better than 69% of the companies in Industrial Products industry. Overall, the profitability of Mueller Industries is ranked 8 out of 10, which indicates strong profitability. This is the revenue and net income of Mueller Industries over the past years:
Growth is probably one of the most important factors in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus' research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long-term performance of a company's stock. If a company's business is growing, the company usually creates value for its shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. Likewise, if a company's revenue and earnings are declining, the value of the company will decrease. Mueller Industries's 3-year average revenue growth rate is in the middle range of the companies in Industrial Products industry. Mueller Industries's 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is 15.6%, which ranks better than 72% of the companies in Industrial Products industry.
One can also evaluate a company's profitability by comparing its return on invested capital (ROIC) to its weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. If the return on invested capital exceeds the weighted average cost of capital, the company is likely creating value for its shareholders. During the past 12 months, Mueller Industries's ROIC is 17.16 while its WACC came in at 7.57.
In conclusion, the stock of Mueller Industries (NYSE:MLI, 30-year Financials) is estimated to be significantly overvalued. The company's financial condition is fair and its profitability is strong. Its growth ranks better than 72% of the companies in Industrial Products industry. To learn more about Mueller Industries stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
To find out the high quality companies that may deliever above average returns, please check out GuruFocus High Quality Low Capex Screener.
