The stock of MonotaRO Co (OTCPK:MONOY, 30-year Financials) is believed to be significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $54.01 per share and the market cap of $26.8 billion, MonotaRO Co stock is estimated to be significantly overvalued. GF Value for MonotaRO Co is shown in the chart below.
Because MonotaRO Co is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth, which averaged 21.2% over the past three years and is estimated to grow 18.07% annually over the next three to five years.
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Companies with poor financial strength offer investors a high risk of permanent capital loss. To avoid permanent capital loss, an investor must do their research and review a company's financial strength before deciding to purchase shares. Both the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage of a company are a great way to to understand its financial strength. MonotaRO Co has a cash-to-debt ratio of 1.84, which which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Industrial Products industry. The overall financial strength of MonotaRO Co is 8 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of MonotaRO Co is strong. This is the debt and cash of MonotaRO Co over the past years:
Investing in profitable companies carries less risk, especially in companies that have demonstrated consistent profitability over the long term. Typically, a company with high profit margins offers better performance potential than a company with low profit margins. MonotaRO Co has been profitable 10 years over the past 10 years. During the past 12 months, the company had revenues of $1.5 billion and earnings of $0.261 a share. Its operating margin of 12.46% better than 77% of the companies in Industrial Products industry. Overall, GuruFocus ranks MonotaRO Co's profitability as strong. This is the revenue and net income of MonotaRO Co over the past years:
Growth is probably the most important factor in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long term performance of a company's stock. The faster a company is growing, the more likely it is to be creating value for shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. The 3-year average annual revenue growth rate of MonotaRO Co is 21.2%, which ranks better than 89% of the companies in Industrial Products industry. The 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is 17.5%, which ranks better than 75% of the companies in Industrial Products industry.
Another way to look at the profitability of a company is to compare its return on invested capital and the weighted cost of capital. Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. We want to have the return on invested capital higher than the weighted cost of capital. For the past 12 months, MonotaRO Co's return on invested capital is 35.98, and its cost of capital is 4.21. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of MonotaRO Co is shown below:
To conclude, The stock of MonotaRO Co (OTCPK:MONOY, 30-year Financials) shows every sign of being significantly overvalued. The company's financial condition is strong and its profitability is strong. Its growth ranks better than 75% of the companies in Industrial Products industry. To learn more about MonotaRO Co stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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