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QDM International (QDM International) Predictability Rank


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What is QDM International Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

QDM International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

QDM International Predictability Rank Related Terms

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QDM International (QDM International) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » QDM International Inc (OTCPK:QDMI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SLQT CRD.A FANH EHTH ZBAO GOCO HUIZ TIRX RELI BWIN MMC AON AJG WTW BRO ERIE BOM:543390 CRVL ASX:SDF ASX:AUB
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
5 Canton Road, Room 1030B, 10/F, Ocean Centre, Harbour City, Tsim Sha Tsui, Hong Kong, HKG, 200051
Website
https://www.247kiddoc.com
QDM International Inc is an insurance brokerage company operating in Hong Kong. The company sells a wide range of insurance products, consisting of two main categories: life and medical insurance, such as individual life insurance; and general insurance, such as automobile insurance, commercial property insurance, liability insurance, and homeowner insurance. In addition, as a Mandatory Provident Fund Intermediary, it also provides customers with assistance on account opening and related services under the MPF and the Occupational Retirement Schemes Ordinance schemes, both of which are mandatory retirement protection schemes set up for employees who are Hong Kong residents.
Executives
Timothy John Miles director PO BOX 30, DUNDEE MI 48131
Huihe Zheng director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman, CEO, and President T2-702 SOHO TIANSHAN SQUARE,, 1717 TIANSHAN ROAD, CHANGNING DISTRICT, SHANGHAI F4 200051
Huili Shen director, officer: Secretary ROOM 707 SOHO T2 TIANSHAN PLAZA, SHANGHAI F4 200051
Robert Brooks 10 percent owner 9 PROSPECT AVENUE, PORT WASHINGTON NY 11050
Kenneth J Scott director 2156 HURON TRAIL, MAITLAND FL 32751
Brian C Rosenbloom director, 10 percent owner
Timothy B Shannon director, officer: CEO/CFO 4279 BURNWOOD TRAIL, DENVER CO 28037

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