What is PubliGroupe Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, PubliGroupe's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of PubliGroupe's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Advertising Agencies subindustry, PubliGroupe's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
PubliGroupe's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Media - Diversified Industry
For the Media - Diversified industry and Communication Services sector, PubliGroupe's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where PubliGroupe's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
PubliGroupe Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
PubliGroupe (XSWX:PUBN) Business Description
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PubliGroupe SA is engaged in sale of advertising space in Switzerland and abroad. It is a provider of marketing and media sales services. The Company operates in the following segments: Search & Find; Media Sales, and Digital & Marketing Services, Corporate and Others. The Search & Find is active in Switzerland and France. It produces and sells instruments facilitating the search for persons, companies, products and services. The printed and interactive directories are the foundation of the Search & Find platform. This platform is supplemented by offers of additional services such as leisure, guides and classified. Media Sales offers all media sales activities (print, electronic, digital & interactive media) in Switzerland and abroad. It is based on partnerships with the media established now for many years. Digital & Marketing Services brings together an international and interactive marketing services portfolio for advertising customers and agencies, including consultancy for the development and implementation of efficient communication and media strategies as well as online marketing platforms deploying access to a wide range of marketing channels. Corporate and Others" includes the Group general management costs, corporate support to develop new activities, real estate management and companies that fall outside the three other operating segments.
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