What is Vuzix Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Vuzix Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Vuzix (VUZI) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
25 Hendrix Road, Suite A, West Henrietta, NY, USA, 14586
Vuzix Corp is engaged in design, manufacture, marketing and sale of augmented reality wearable display and computing devices, also referred to as head mounted displays in the form of Smart Glasses and Augmented Reality glasses. Geographically, the company generates majority of the revenue from United States and also has its presence in Europe, Asia-Pacific and Others.
Executives
| Paul J Travers |
director, officer: President and CEO |
75 TOWN CENTRE DR, ROCHESTER NY 14623 |
| Kay Edward William Jr. |
director |
55 MITCHELL ROAD, PITTSFORD NY 14534 |
| Peter Hamilton Jameson |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
5 CHIPMUNK TRL, PITTSFORD NY 14534 |
| Raj Rajgopal |
director |
C/O VIRTUSA CORPORATION, 2000 WEST PARK DRIVE, WESTBOROUGH MA 01581 |
| Grant Russell |
director, officer: CFO and Executive VP |
VUZIX CORPORATION, 75 TOWN CENTRE DR, ROCHESTER NY 14623 |
| Timothy Heydenreich Harned |
director |
71 MAUGUS AVENUE, WELLESLEY MA 02481 |
| Emily Nagle Green |
director |
CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS, 25 GREENS HILL LANE, RUTLAND VT 05701 |
| Azita Arvani |
director |
1522 LOMA DRIVE, HERMOSA BEACH CA 90254 |
| Intel Corp |
10 percent owner |
2200 MISSION COLLEGE BLVD, RNB-4-151, SANTA CLARA CA 95054 |
| Alexander Ruckdaeschel |
director |
123 EAST 83RD STREET, APT 3-B, NEW YORK NY 10028 |
| Paul A Boris |
director, officer: Chief Operating Officer |
2561 VERONICA DRIVE, CHESTER SPRINGS PA 19425 |
| William Lee |
director |
75 TOWN CENTRE DR, C/O VUZIX CORPORATION, ROCHESTER NY 14623 |
| Michael Dennis Scott |
director |
1211 21ST STREET, HERMOSA BEACH CA 90254 |
| Michael Edwards Mccrackan |
officer: Vice President of Operations |
38 TURNING LEAF DRIVE, PITTSFORD NY 14534 |
| Cecin Jose A Jr |
director |
C/O MOBILE SATELLITE VENTURES LP, 10802 PARKRIDGE BLVD, RESTON VA 20191 |
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