Frontier Group Holdings (Frontier Group Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Frontier Group Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Frontier Group Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Frontier Group Holdings (Frontier Group Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Frontier Group Holdings Inc (NAS:ULCC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4545 Airport Way, Denver, CO, USA, 80239

Website

https://www.FlyFrontier.com

Frontier Group Holdings Inc is an ultra low-cost carrier whose business is focused on Low Fares Done Right. The company owns fleet of 120 Airbus single-aisle aircraft, consisting of 13 A320ceos, 82 A320neos, 21 A321ceos and 4 A321neos. The use of these aircraft, its seating configuration, weight-saving tactics and baggage process have all contributed to ability to continue to be the fuel-efficient of all the U.S. The Company is managed as a single business unit that provides air transportation for passengers.

Executives

James G. Dempsey	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	C/O FRONTIER GROUP HOLDINGS, INC., 4545 AIRPORT WAY, DENVER CO 80238
Howard Diamond	officer: SVP, GC & Secretary	C/O FRONTIER AIRLINES, 7001 TOWER ROAD, DENVER CO 80249
Rajat Khanna	officer: See Remarks	C/O FRONTIER GROUP HOLDINGS, INC., 4545 AIRPORT WAY, DENVER CO 80239
Barry Biffle	director, officer: See Remarks	C/O SPIRIT AIRLINES, 2800 EXECUTIVE WAY, MIRAMAR FL 30325
Jacob F. Filene	officer: See Remarks	C/O FRONTIER GROUP HOLDINGS, INC., 4545 AIRPORT WAY, DENVER CO 80238
Daniel M. Shurz	officer: See Remarks	C/O FRONTIER GROUP HOLDINGS, INC., 4545 AIRPORT WAY, DENVER CO 80238
Josh A Wetzel	officer: VP & CAO	C/O FRONTIER GROUP HOLDINGS, INC., 4545 AIRPORT WAY, DENVER CO 80239
Ofelia Kumpf	director	C/O FRONTIER GROUP HOLDINGS, INC., 4545 AIRPORT WAY, DENVER CO 80238
Mark Christopher Mitchell	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O FRONTIER GROUP HOLDINGS, INC., 4545 AIRPORT WAY, DENVER CO 80238
Robert J. Genise	director	C/O FRONTIER GROUP HOLDINGS, INC., 4545 AIRPORT WAY, DENVER CO 80238
Indigo Frontier Holdings Company, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O INDIGO PARTNERS, 2525 EAST CAMELBACK ROAD, SUITE 900, PHOENIX AZ 85016
Josh T. Connor	director	C/O FRONTIER GROUP HOLDINGS, INC., 4545 AIRPORT WAY, DENVER CO 80238
Patricia Salas Pineda	director	C/O LEVI STRAUSS & CO., 1155 BATTERY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
William A Franke	director, 10 percent owner
Trevor J. Stedke	officer: See Remarks	C/O FRONTIER GROUP HOLDINGS, INC., 4545 AIRPORT WAY, DENVER CO 80238