What is Ubiquiti Predictability Rank?
4.5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Ubiquiti Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Ubiquiti (Ubiquiti) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
685 Third Avenue, 27th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10017
Ubiquiti Inc is a wireless and wireline network equipment provider for small Internet service providers and small- and midsize-business integrators. Its product is based on two primary categories namely Service Provider Technology and Enterprise Technology. The company generates maximum revenue from Enterprise Technology. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from North America and also has a presence in Europe, the Middle East and Africa; Asia Pacific and South America.
Executives
| Ronald Sege |
director |
350 CAMPUS DRIVE, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752 |
| Brandon Arrindell |
director |
UBIQUITI INC., 685 THIRD AVENUE, 27TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Benjamin Moore |
officer: VP Business Development |
91 E. TASMAN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134 |
| Robert J Pera |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
2580 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95131 |
| Rafael Torres |
director |
4359 RED MAPLE CT, SAN JOSE CA 95138 |
| Michael E. Hurlston |
director |
5300 CALIFORNIA AVENUE, IRVINE CA 92617 |
| Kevin Radigan |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
685 THIRD AVE, 27TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Mark Spragg |
officer: Interim CAO |
2580 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95131 |
| John Sanford |
officer: Chief Technology Officer |
91 E. TASMAN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134 |
| Steven R Altman |
director |
|
| Peter Y Chung |
director |
C/O SUMMIT PARTNERS, 222 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLR, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Summit Partners Private Equity Fund Vii-a, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
C/O SUMMIT PARTNERS, 222 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110 |
| Fitzgerald Charles James Jr |
director |
SUMMIT PARTNERS, 222 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Summit Partners L P |
other: Manager of GP of 10% owner. |
222 BERKELEY STREET, 18TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Jessica Zhou |
officer: General Counsel & VP |
UBIQUITI NETWORKS, INC., 91 E. TASMAN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134 |
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