Twilio (Twilio) Predictability Rank

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What is Twilio Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Twilio Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Twilio (Twilio) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » Twilio Inc (NYSE:TWLO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

TWLO:Mexico TWH:Germany TWH:Germany T1WL34:Brazil TWLO:Austria

Address

101 Spear Street, Fifth Floor, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94105

Website

https://www.twilio.com

Twilio is a cloud-based communications platform-as-a-service company offering communication building blocks that allow for a fully customized customer engagement experience spanning voice, video, chat, and SMS messaging. It does this through various application programming interfaces and prebuilt solution applications aimed at improving customer engagement. The company leverages its Super Network, a global network of carrier relationships, to facilitate high-speed, cost-effective communication.

Executives

Aidan Viggiano	officer: Chief Financial Officer	101 SPEAR STREET, FIFTH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Dana Wagner	officer: Chief Legal Officer, Secretary	C/O TWILIO INC., 101 SPEAR STREET, FIRST FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Khozema Shipchandler	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O PIVOTAL SOFTWARE, INC., 875 HOWARD STREET, FIFTH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Elena A. Donio	director	C/O CONCUR TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 18400 NE UNION HILL RD., REDMOND WA 98052
Charles H Bell	director	101 SPEAR STREET, FIFTH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Donna Dubinsky	director	C/O TWILIO INC., 375 BEALE STREET, SUITE 300, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Jeff Lawson	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	645 HARRISON STREET, THIRD FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Eyal Manor	officer: Chief Product Officer	C/O TWILIO INC., 101 SPEAR STREET, FIRST FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Miyuki Suzuki	director	C/O WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION, 5601 GREAT OAKS PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95119
Marc Boroditsky	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	121 W. WACKER DR., SUITE 2050, CHICAGO IL 60614
Richard L Dalzell	director	PO BOX 81226, SEATTLE WA 98108-1226
Karyn Smith	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	TWILIO INC, 645 HARRISON STREET THIRD FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Jeffrey R Immelt	director	GENERAL ELECTRIC COMPANY, 41 FARNSWORTH STREET, BOSTON MA 02210
George Hu	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O YELP INC., 350 MISSION STREET, 10TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Erika Rottenberg	director	2029 STIERLIN COURT, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043