Tenet Healthcare (Tenet Healthcare) Predictability Rank

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What is Tenet Healthcare Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tenet Healthcare Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Tenet Healthcare (Tenet Healthcare) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Tenet Healthcare Corp (NYSE:THC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

THC:Mexico THC1:Germany

Address

14201 Dallas Parkway, Dallas, TX, USA, 75254

Website

https://www.tenethealth.com

Tenet Healthcare is a Dallas-based healthcare services organization. It operates a collection of hospitals (about 60 as of June 2023) and over 550 ambulatory surgery centers and other outpatient facilities across the U.S., primarily in the South. Through its Conifer segment, Tenet also provides revenue cycle management solutions.

Executives

Richard W Fisher	director
Roy Blunt	director	2702 LOVE FIELD DRIVE, HDQ 4GC, DALLAS TX 75235
Paola M Arbour	officer: EVP, Chief Information Officer	14201 DALLAS PARKWAY, DALLAS TX 75254
Stephen H Rusckowski	director	C/O QUEST DIAGNOSTICS, 500 PLAZA DRIVE, SECAUCUS NJ 07094
Thomas W Arnst	officer: EVP, Chief Admin. Officer & GC	14201 DALLAS PARKWAY, DALLAS TX 75254
Tammy Romo	director	C/O SOUTHWEST AIRINES CO., 2702 LOVE FIELD DR., DALLAS TX 75235
Daniel J Cancelmi	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	13737 NOEL ROAD, SUITE 100, DALLAS TX 75240
J Robert Kerrey	director	NEW SCHOOL UNIVERSITY, 66 W. 12TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10036
Richard J Mark	director	1901 CHOUTEAU AVENUE MC-1310, ST. LOUIS MO 63103
Ronald A Rittenmeyer	director	5400 LEGACY DRIVE, PLANO TX 75024
Lisa Y Foo	officer: EVP, Commercial Ops	14201 DALLAS PARKWAY, DALLAS TX 75254
Audrey T. Andrews	officer: SVP and General Counsel	1445 ROSS AVENUE, SUITE 1400, DALLAS TX 75202
Meghan Fitzgerald	director	C/O VION PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 4 SCIENCE PARK, NEW HAVEN CT 06511
Howard Hacker	officer: EVP, Chief Compliance Officer	14201 DALLAS PARKWAY, DALLAS TX 75254
Marie Quintana	officer: EVP, Marketing/Communications	14201 DALLAS PARKWAY, DALLAS TX 75254