Solitron Devices (Solitron Devices) Predictability Rank

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What is Solitron Devices Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Solitron Devices Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Solitron Devices (Solitron Devices) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Solitron Devices Inc (OTCPK:SODI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

901 Sansburys Way, West Palm Beach, FL, USA, 33411

Website

https://www.solitrondevices.com

Solitron Devices Inc designs, develop, manufactures, and markets solid-state semiconductor components and related devices mainly for the military and aerospace markets. It manufactures a large variety of bipolar and metal oxide semiconductor (MOS) power transistors, power and control hybrids, junction and power MOS field-effect transistors (Power MOSFETS), field effect transistors, and other related products. It derives the majority of its revenues from its business operations in the United States, while it also holds a presence in Canada, Latin America, the Far East, and the Middle East.

Executives

Howard Timothy Eriksen	director	567 WILDROSE CIRCLE, LYNDEN WA 98264
Mark Matson	officer: President and COO	600 S. ROCKFORD DRIVE, TEMPE AZ 85281
Olesen Value Fund Gp Llc	10 percent owner	C/O OLESEN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC, 185 HUDSON STREET, SUITE 2539, JERSEY CITY NJ 07311
David William Pointer	director	PO BOX 402, NEWMAN LAKE WA 99025
Christian Olesen	10 percent owner	C/O OLESEN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC, 185 HUDSON STREET, SUITE 2539, JERSEY CITY NJ 07311
Olesen Capital Management Llc	10 percent owner	185 HUDSON STREET, SUITE 2539, JERSEY CITY NJ 07311
Olesen Value Fund L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O OLESEN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC, 185 HUDSON STREET, SUITE 2539, JERSEY CITY NJ 07311
John Stayduhar	other: Shareholder	C/O JOHN FARINA, 1601 FORUM PL. #900, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Charles M Gillman	director	1223 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, OFFICE 648, SANTA MONICA CA 90402
Cedar Creek Partners Llc	other: Shareholder	8695 GLENDALE RD., CUSTER WA 98240
Eriksen Capital Management Llc	other: Shareholder	8695 GLENDALE RD., CUSTER WA 98240
John F Chiste	director
Dwight P Aubrey	director	C/O SOLITRON DEVICES, INC., 3301 ELECTRONICS WAY, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33407
Joseph F Gerrity	director
Sidney H Kopperl	director	C/O SOLITRON DEVICES, INC., 3301 ELECTRONICS WAY, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33407