SelectQuote (SelectQuote) Predictability Rank

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What is SelectQuote Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SelectQuote Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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SelectQuote (SelectQuote) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » SelectQuote Inc (NYSE:SLQT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

6SJA:Germany

Address

6800 West 115th Street, Suite 2511, Overland Park, KS, USA, 66211

Website

http://www.selectquote.com

SelectQuote Inc is a Direct-to-consumer (DTC) distribution platform which facilitates consumers to shop for health, life and auto & home insurance policies online. The company generates its revenues by selling insurance products on behalf of the insurance carrier partners in the form of commission. It functions through three lines namely, SelectQuote Senior, SelectQuote Life, and SelectQuote Auto & Home.

Executives

Joshua Brandon Matthews	officer: President, SelectQuote Senior	6800 WEST 115TH STREET, SUITE 2511, OVERLAND PARK KS 66211
Grant W Thomas Ii	director	PO BOX 419248, KANSAS CITY MO 64141-6248
Grant William Thomas Iii	officer: CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER	6800 W 115TH STREET, SUITE 2511, OVERLAND PARK KS 66211
Robert Clay Grant	officer: PRESIDENT, SELECTQUOTE SENIOR	6800 W 115TH STREET, SUITE 2511, PARK KS 66211
Sarah Taylor Anderson	officer: (See Remarks)	6800 WEST 115TH STREET, SUITE 2511, OVERLAND PARK KS 66211
Timothy Robert Danker	director, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER	6800 W 115TH STREET, SUITE 2511, OVERLAND PARK KS 66211
Hawks Donald L Iii	director	6800 W 115TH STREET, SUITE 2511, OVERLAND PARK KS 66211
Raymond F Weldon	director	6800 W 115TH STREET, SUITE 2511, OVERLAND PARK KS 66211
Matthew Scott Gunter	officer: See Remarks	6800 W 115TH STREET, SUITE 2511, OVERLAND PARK KS 66211
Stephanie D. Fisher	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	10990 ROE AVENUE, OVERLAND PARK KS 66211
Ryan Moore Clement	officer: See Remarks	6800 WEST 115TH STREET, SUITE 2511, OVERLAND PARK KS 66211
Kristin Gibbar	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	6800 W. 115TH STREET, SUITE 2511, OVERLAND PARK KS 66211
Devanny Earl H Iii	director	CERNER CORP, 2800 ROCKCREEK PARKWAY, KANSAS CITY MO 64117-1593
Denise L Devine	director	C/O FULTON FINANCIAL CORPORATION, ONE PENN SQUARE, LANCASTER PA 17602
Raffaele Sadun	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	6800 W 115TH STREET, SUITE 2511, OVERLAND PARK KS 66211