Shapeways Holdings (Shapeways Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Shapeways Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Shapeways Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Shapeways Holdings (Shapeways Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Shapeways Holdings Inc (NAS:SHPW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

12163 Globe Street, Livonia, MI, USA, 48150

Website

https://www.shapeways.com

Shapeways Holdings Inc is engaged in the digital manufacturing industry. It makes industrial-grade additive manufacturing accessible by fully digitizing the end-to-end manufacturing process. The Company reports in one segment, which focuses on providing additive manufacturing services to customers.

Executives

Greg Kress	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O SHAPEWAYS HOLDINGS, INC., 30-02 48TH AVENUE, LONG ISLAND CITY NY 11101
Joseph Andrew Nied	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O SHAPEWAYS HOLDINGS, INC., 30-02 48TH AVENUE, LONG ISLAND CITY NY 11101
Christine Marie Gorjanc	director	4500 GREAT AMERICA PARKWAY, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Campbell Leslie C.g.	director	C/O COUPA SOFTWARE INC., 1855 S. GRANT STREET, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Raj Batra	director	MKS INSTRUMENTS, INC., 2 TECH DRIVE, SUITE 201, ANDOVER MA 01810
Index Ventures V Parallel Entrepreneur Fund (jersey), L.p.	10 percent owner	OGIER HOUSE, THE ESPLANADE, ST. HELIER Y9 JE4 9WC
Miko Levy	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O SHAPEWAYS HOLDINGS, INC., 30-02 48TH AVENUE, LONG ISLAND CITY NY 11101
Jennifer Walsh	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SHAPEWAYS HOLDINGS, INC., 30-02 48TH STREET, LONG ISLAND CITY NY 11101
Ryan C. Kearny	director	C/O F5 NETWORKS, INC., 401 ELLIOTT AVE. WEST, SEATTLE WA 98119
Patrick S Jones	director	5555 NE MOORE CT, HILLSBORO OR 97124
Alberto Recchi	director	1049 PARK AVENUE FLOOR 14A, NEW YORK NY 10028
Robert Jan Galema	director	C/O SHAPEWAYS HOLDINGS, INC., 30-02 48TH AVENUE, LONG ISLAND CITY NY 11101
Index Ventures V (jersey), L.p.	10 percent owner	OGIER HOUSE, THE ESPLANADE, ST. HELIER Y9 JE4 9WC
Ah Parallel Fund Iii-a, L.p.	10 percent owner	2865 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Josh Wolfe	director	C/O LUX HEALTH TECH ACQUISITION CORP., 920 BROADWAY, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010