Surgery Partners (Surgery Partners) Predictability Rank

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What is Surgery Partners Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Surgery Partners Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Surgery Partners (Surgery Partners) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Surgery Partners Inc (NAS:SGRY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

340 Seven Springs Way, Suite 600, Brentwood, TN, USA, 37027

Website

https://www.surgerypartners.com

Surgery Partners Inc is one of the few remaining independent ambulatory surgery center operators in the U.S. with national scale. The firm operates surgical facilities in approximately 30 states in partnership with physician groups and larger local healthcare systems. While surgical procedures drive a majority of the firm's revenue, the company also operates a clinical lab, urgent care facilities, and a handful of physician practices to provide additional healthcare services within the communities it serves. It operates in two segments: Surgical Facility Services and Ancillary Services out of which the Surgical Facility Services segment accounts for the majority of revenue.

Executives

Bain Capital Investors Llc	director, 10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Wayne S Deveydt	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	120 MONUMENT CIRCLE, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
T. Devin O'reilly	director, 10 percent owner	C/O BAIN CAPITAL PRIVATE EQUITY, LP, 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02149
Blair E Hendrix	director, 10 percent owner
Andrew T. Kaplan	director	C/O BAIN CAPITAL PRIVATE EQUITY, LP, 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Jason Eric Evans	officer: EVP & Chief Operating Officer	310 SEVEN SPRINGS WAY, SUITE 500, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Harrison R. Bane	officer: American Group President	310 SEVEN SPRINGS WAY, SUITE 500, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
David T Doherty	officer: Chief Financial Officer	310 SEVEN SPRINGS WAY, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Bradley R. Owens	officer: National Group President	310 SEVEN SPRINGS WAY, SUITE 500, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Danielle Burkhalter	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	310 SEVEN SPRINGS WAY, SUITE 500, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Anthony Taparo	officer: President, Atlantic Group	310 SEVEN SPRINGS WAY, SUITE 500, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Jennifer Baldock	officer: Sr. VP, Gen Couns. & Sec.	310 SEVEN SPRINGS WAY, SUITE 500, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Marissa Brittenham	officer: Chief Strategy Officer	310 SEVEN SPRINGS WAY, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Bain Capital Fund Xi, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	JOHN HANCOCK TOWER, 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Bain Capital Partners Xi, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116