What is Safe & Green Holdings Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Safe & Green Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Safe & Green Holdings (Safe & Green Holdings) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
990 Biscayne Boulevard, No. 501, Office 12, Miami, FL, USA, 33132
Safe & Green Holdings Corp is a modular solutions company. The company currently provides modules made out of both code-engineered cargo shipping containers and wood for use as both permanent or temporary structures for residential housing use and commercial use, including for health care facilities. It operates in four segments: construction; medical; real estate development; and environmental. The company generates the majority of its revenue from the Construction segment which designs and constructs modular structures built in their factories using raw materials that are Made-in-America.
Executives
| Thomas Meharey |
director |
990 BISCAYNE BLVD., SUITE 501, MIAMI FL 33132 |
| Jill Ellen Anderson |
director |
990 BISCAYNE BLVD., SUITE 501, MIAMI FL 33132 |
| Vanessa Villaverde |
director |
990 BISCAYNE BLVD., SUITE 501, MIAMI FL 33132 |
| Patricia Kaelin |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
990 BISCAYNE, #501, OFFICE 12, MIAMI FL 33132 |
| Elizabeth Cormier-may |
director |
5011 GATE PARKWAY, BUILDING 100, JACKSONVILLE FL 32256 |
| Shafron E. Hawkins |
director |
5011 GATE PARKWAY, BUILDING 100, JACKSONVILLE FL 32256 |
| John William Shaw |
10 percent owner |
1005 E. LAS TUNAS DR., #116, SAN GABRIEL CA 91776 |
| Gerald Anthony Sheeran |
officer: Acting Chief Financial Officer |
C/O SG BLOCKS, INC., 195 MONTAGUE STREET, 14TH FLOOR, BROOKLYN NY 11201 |
| Margaret Coleman |
director |
195 MONATGUE STREET, 14TH FLOOR, 14TH FLOOR, BROOKLYN NY 11201 |
| Yaniv Blumenfeld |
director |
C/O SG BLOCKS, INC., 195 MONTAGUE STREET, 14TH FLOOR, BROOKLYN NY 11201 |
| David Roberto Villarreal |
director |
17 STATE STREET, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10004 |
| Joseph Safina |
director |
1320 SEMINOLE DRIVE, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33304 |
| William Jeffrey Rogers |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
17 STATE STREET, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10004 |
| Mahesh S Shetty |
director, officer: CFO |
429 MEMORY LANE, MARSHALL TX 75672 |
| Swets Larry G Jr |
10 percent owner |
105 S. MAPLE ST., ITASCA IL 60143 |
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