SideChannel (SideChannel) Predictability Rank

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What is SideChannel Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SideChannel Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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SideChannel (SideChannel) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » SideChannel Inc (OTCPK:SDCH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

146 Main Street, Suite 406, Worcester, MA, USA, 01608

Website

https://www.sidechannel.com

SideChannel Inc is a provider of cybersecurity services and technology to companies; national, state, and local municipalities; and non-profits. The company earns maximum revenue from vCISO Services that capture the revenue, the Chief Information Security Officer services that it provides to its clients on a 'virtual' or outsourced basis.

Executives

Ryan Polk	officer: Chief Financial Officer	7635 INTERACTIVE WAY, SUITE 200, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46278
Brian Wayne Haugli	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	146 MAIN ST, SUITE #405, WORCESTER MA 01608
Regan Hugh T Jr	director	C/O INTEST CORP, 804 EAST GATE DR., SUITE 200, MT. LAUREL NJ 08054
Anthony Ambrose	director	6645 185TH AVE NE SUITE 100, REDMOND WA 98052
Deborah Kuenzi Macconnel	director	146 MAIN ST, SUITE #405, WORCESTER MA 01608
Kevin Robert Powers	director	146 MAIN ST, SUITE #405, WORCESTER MA 01608
Nicholas William Hnatiw	officer: Chief Technology Officer	6836 BEE CAVE ROAD,, BLDG 1 #279, AUSTIN TX 78746
Sammy Eugene Davis	director	6836 BEE CAVE ROAD, BLDG 1 #279, AUSTIN TX 78746
Andrew Borene	officer: Chief Executive Officer	825 MAIN STREET, SUITE 100, BUDA TX 78610
Manchester Management Pr, Llc	10 percent owner	3 WEST HILL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02114
Zeynep Young	director	825 MAIN ST., SUITE 100, BUDA TX 78610
David Chasteen	director	825 MAIN ST, SUITE 100, BUDA TX 78610
Thomas Wiley Wilkinson	director	3 COLERIDGE LANE, AUSTIN TX 78746
James E Besser	10 percent owner	3 WEST HILL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02114
Manchester Explorer, L.p.	10 percent owner	MANCHESTER MANAGEMENT COMPANY, L.L.C, 3 WEST HILL PLACE, Boston ma 02114