Safehold (Safehold) Predictability Rank

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What is Safehold Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Safehold Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Safehold (Safehold) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Safehold Inc (NYSE:SAFE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1114 Avenue of the Americas, 39th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10036

Website

https://www.safeholdinc.com

Safehold Inc is a REIT that operates its business by acquiring, managing and capitalizing ground leases. Ground leases are long-term contracts between the landlord (the Company) and a tenant or leaseholder. Ground leases generally represent ownership of the land underlying commercial real estate projects that is net leased by the fee owner of the land to the owners/operators of the real estate projects built thereon.

Executives

Istar Inc.	10 percent owner	1114 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 39TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Brett Asnas	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ISTAR, 1114 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, FL. 39, NEW YORK NY 10036
Jesse Hom	director	168 ROBINSON ROAD, #37-01, CAPITAL TOWER, SINGAPORE U0 068912
Dean S Adler	director, 10 percent owner	BELGRAVIA 8TH FL, 1811 CHESTNUT ST, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Garett Rosenblum	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O ISTAR, 1114 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, FL. 39, NEW YORK NY 10036
Jeremy Fox-geen	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ISTAR, 1114 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, FL 39, NEW YORK NY 10036
Jay Sugarman	director, officer: Chairman and CEO	24301 WALDEN CENTER DR, BONITA SPRINGS FL 34134
Marcos Alvarado	officer: Chief Investment Officer	591 WEST PUTNAM AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Jay S Nydick	director	1114 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 27TH FLR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Nina Matis	officer: Chief Legal Officer & CIO	1114 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 12TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10036
Andrew C Richardson	officer: Interim CFO	527 MADISON AVENUE, 16TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Geoffrey G Jervis	officer: COO and CFO	C/O CAPITAL TRUST, INC., 410 PARK AVENUE, 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Stefan M Selig	director	2 EAST 70TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10021
Robin Josephs	director
Sfty Venture Llc	10 percent owner	C/O GIC REAL ESTATE, INC., 280 PARK AVENUE, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017