Personalis (Personalis) Predictability Rank

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What is Personalis Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Personalis Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Personalis (Personalis) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Diagnostics & Research » Personalis Inc (NAS:PSNL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

04X:Germany

Address

6600 Dumbarton Circle, Fremont, CA, USA, 94555

Website

https://www.personalis.com

Personalis Inc is a provider of genomic sequencing and analytics solutions to support the development of personalized cancer vaccines and other next-generation cancer immunotherapies. It has one segment, the sale of sequencing and data analysis services. Its products include ImmunoID NeXT, NeXT Liquid Biopsy, NeXT Dx Test, and other Pharma Research Solutions.

Executives

Richard Chen	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O PERSONALIS, INC., 1330 O'BRIEN DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Stephen Michael Moore	officer: General Counsel	C/O PERSONALIS, INC., 1330 O'BRIEN DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Aaron Tachibana	officer: Chief Financial Officer	400 NORTH MCCARTHY BLVD, MILPITAS CA 95035
Christopher M Hall	officer: President	6600 DUMBARTON CIRCLE, FREMONT CA 94555
Kenneth J Widder	director	10070 BARNES CANYON ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Lonnie Shoff	director	C/O PERSONALIS, INC., 1330 O'BRIEN DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025
John Stephen West	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O PERSONALIS, INC., 6600 DUMBARTON CIRCLE, FREMONT CA 94555
Lightspeed Venture Partners Select Iv, L.p.	other: Affiliate of 10% Owner	2200 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Olivia Kyusuk Bloom	director	C/O GERON CORP, 230 CONSTITUTION DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Myers Woodrow A Jr	director	1 N ILLINOIS SREET 2101, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Llp Abingworth	10 percent owner	38 JERMYN STREET, LONDON X0 SW1Y 6DN
Ken Ludlum	director
Arif Janmohamed	other: Affiliate of 10% Owner	2200 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Lightspeed Ultimate General Partner Select Iv, L.l.c.	other: Affiliate of 10% Owner	2200 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Lightspeed General Partner Select Iv, L.p.	other: Affiliate of 10% Owner	2200 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025