What is ProPhase Labs Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
ProPhase Labs Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
ProPhase Labs (ProPhase Labs) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
711 Stewart Avenue, Suite 200, Garden City, NY, USA, 11530
ProPhase Labs Inc is a diversified company that offers a range of services including diagnostic testing, genomics testing and contract manufacturing. Its operating segments include Diagnostic services and Consumer products. The Diagnostic services segment provides COVID-19 diagnostic information services to a broad range of customers in the United States, including health plans, third-party payers and government organizations. The Consumer products segment is engaged in the research, development, manufacture, distribution, marketing and sale of OTC consumer healthcare products and dietary supplements in the United States and also provide personal genomics products and services.
Executives
| Morse Robert A. Jr. |
officer: Controller |
711 STEWART AVENUE, SUITE 200, GARDEN CITY NY 11530 |
| Billy Joe White |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
191 OTTO ST., PORT TOWNSEND WA 98368 |
| Jason Michael Barr |
director |
902 BROADWAY, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010 |
| Louis Md Gleckel |
10 percent owner |
C/O PROHEALTH CARE ASSOCIATES LLP, 2800 METRUS AVE, LAKE SUCCESS NY 11042 |
| Ted William Karkus |
10 percent owner |
188 HEWLETT NECK ROAD, WOODMERE NY 11598 |
| Warren Hirsch |
director |
621 N. SHADY RETREAT ROAD, DOYLESTOWN PA 18901 |
| Monica L. Brady |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
621 N. SHADY RETREAT ROAD, DOYLESTOWN PA 18901 |
| Cuddihy Robert V Jr |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
PARKER DURYEE ET AL, 529 FIFTH AVE 8TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Braden Michael Leonard |
10 percent owner |
156 S. FIRST STREET, ZIONSVILLE IN 46077 |
| Mark S Leventhal |
10 percent owner |
THE BEACON COMPANIES, 50 FEDERAL STREET, BOSTON MA 02468 |
| Mark Shawn Frank |
director |
104 WHISPER WOOD COURT, WRIGHTSTOWN PA 18940 |
| James T Mccubbin |
director |
|
| Mark A. Burnett |
10 percent owner |
40 HEMLOCK DRIVE, ROSLYN NY 11576 |
| Guy J Quigley |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman, President, CEO |
C/O THE QUIGLEY CORP KELLS BUILDINGS, 621 SHADY RETREAT RD P O BOX 1349, DOYLESTOWN PA 18901 |
| John Deshazo |
10 percent owner |
17 WOLCOTT COURT, BOSTON MA 02136 |
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