Match Group (Match Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Match Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Match Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Match Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Match Group (Match Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » Match Group Inc (NAS:MTCH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MTCH1:Mexico 0JZ7:UK 4MGN:Germany 4MGN:Germany 4MGN:Germany M1TC34:Brazil MTC2:Austria

Address

8750 North Central Expressway, Suite 1400, Dallas, TX, USA, 75231

Website

https://www.mtch.com

Match Group is a provider of online dating products. The firm became public in 2015 and was more than 80% owned by IAC/InterActiveCorp until IAC spun it off in 2020. The company has a vast portfolio of different online dating service providers, including Tinder, Hinge, BLK, Chispa, Match.com, OkCupid, PlentyOfFish, and Meetic. Match Group has more than 45 brands of online dating sites and/or apps, from which it generates user fee revenue (95%) and advertising revenue (5%).

Executives

Jared F. Sine	officer: Chief Legal Officer	8750 NORTH CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY SUITE 1400, DALLAS TX 75231
Glenn Schiffman	director	555 WEST 18TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10011
Ann Mcdaniel	director
Bernard Jin Kim	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O MATCH GROUP, INC., 8750 N CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY, SUITE 1400, DALLAS TX 75231
Wendi Murdoch	director	8750 NORTH CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY, SUITE 1400, DALLAS TX 75231
Joseph Levin	director	C/O IAC/INTERACTIVECORP, 555 WEST 18TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10011
Pamela Seymon	director	8750 NORTH CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY SUITE 1400, DALLAS TX 75231
Melissa Anne Brenner	director	8750 NORTH CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY, SUITE 1400, DALLAS TX 75231
Stephen Bailey	director	8750 NORTH CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY, SUITE 1400, DALLAS TX 75231
Ryan Reynolds	director	8750 NORTH CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY, SUITE 1400, DALLAS TX 75231
Sharmistha Dubey	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	8750 NORTH CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY SUITE 1400, DALLAS TX 75231
Thomas Mcinerney	director	ALTABA INC., 140 E 45TH STREET, 15TH FLOOR, SUITE 15A, NEW YORK X1 10017
Alan G Spoon	director	1150 15TH ST NW, WASHINGTON DC 20071
Philip D Eigenmann	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	8750 NORTH CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY SUITE 1400, DALLAS TX 75231
Gary Swidler	officer: COO and CFO	8750 NORTH CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY SUITE 1400, DALLAS TX 75231