MKS Instruments (MKS Instruments) Predictability Rank

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What is MKS Instruments Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MKS Instruments Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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MKS Instruments (MKS Instruments) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » MKS Instruments Inc (NAS:MKSI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MKT:Germany MKT:Germany

Address

2 Tech Drive, Suite 201, Andover, MA, USA, 01810

Website

https://www.mksinst.com

MKS Instruments Inc is engaged in providing instruments, subsystems, and process control systems used to measure, monitor, deliver, and control parameters of manufacturing processes. The company's product portfolio includes instruments, components, and systems required in manufacturing products such as flat panel displays, medical devices, and electronic materials, among others used in industrial technologies, semiconductor, life and health sciences, and research and defense markets. The company organizes itself into three reportable business segments: Vacuum Solutions, Photonics Solutions, and Materials Solutions. The Vacuum Solutions segment contributes to roughly half of the company's revenue, and the majority of its revenue is earned in the United States.

Executives

Gerard G Colella	officer: VP Global Business Operations	6 SHATTUCK RD, ANDOVER MA 01810
Elizabeth Mora	director	C/O MKS INSTRUMENTS, INC., 2 TECH DRIVE, SUITE 201, ANDOVER MA 01810
Jacqueline F Moloney	director	222 MERRIMACK STREET, LOWELL MA 01852
David Philip Henry	officer: SVP, Corp Mkt, PMO & Glob Svc	MKS INSTRUMENTS, INC., 2 TECH DRIVE, SUITE 201, ANDOVER MA 01810
Seth H Bagshaw	officer: Vice President, CFO
Kathleen Flaherty Burke	officer: Sr. VP, GC & Secretary	MKS INSTRUMENTS, INC., 2 TECH DRIVE, SUITE 201, ANDOVER MA 01810
Cap Iv, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP, 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20004
Cap Iv General Partner, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP, 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20004
Carlyle Asia Partners Iv, L.p.	10 percent owner	1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, NW, SUITE 220, WASHINGTON DC 20004
Carlyle Partners Vi Cayman Holdings, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O WALKERS CORPORATE LIMITED, CAYMAN CORPORATE CENTRE, 27 HOSPITAL RD., GEORGE TOWN, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9008
Carlyle Group Inc.	10 percent owner	C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP, 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W., WASHINGTON DC 20004
Geoffrey Wild	director	108 CHERRY HILL DRIVE, BEVERLY MA 01915
Tc Group Vi Cayman, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O WALKERS CORPORATE LIMITED, CAYMAN CORPORATE CENTRE, 27 HOSPITAL RD., GEORGE TOWN, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9008
Cg Subsidiary Holdings L.l.c.	10 percent owner	C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP, SUITE 220 SOUTH, 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W., WASHINGTON DC 20004
Tc Group Vi Cayman, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	C/O THE CARLYLE GROUP, SUITE 220 SOUTH, 1001 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, N.W., WASHINGTON DC 20004