Methode Electronics (Methode Electronics) Predictability Rank

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What is Methode Electronics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Methode Electronics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Methode Electronics (Methode Electronics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Methode Electronics Inc (NYSE:MEI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ME5A:Germany ME5A:Germany

Address

8750 West Bryn Mawr Avenue, Suite 1000, Chicago, IL, USA, 60631-3518

Website

https://www.methode.com

Methode Electronics Inc makes component and subsystem devices employing electrical, radio remote control, electronic, wireless, and sensing technologies. The firm is organized in various business segments: Automotive, Industrial, interface and Medical. The Automotive segment supplies electronic and electro-mechanical devices and related products to automobile. The Industrial segment manufactures external lighting solutions, industrial safety radio remote controls, braided flexible cables and custom power-product assemblies. The Interface segment provides a variety of copper and fiber-optic interface and interface solutions. The Medical segment is made up of the Company's medical device business, Dabir Surfaces, its surface support technology aimed at pressure injury prevention.

Executives

Donald W Duda	officer: President
Walter J Aspatore	director	255 E BROWN STREET, SUITE 120, BIRMINGHAM MI 48009
Lawrence B Skatoff	director	200 SOUTH MICHIGAN AVE, CHICAGO IL 60604
Brian J Cadwallader	director	5757 N GREEN BAY AVE, MILWAUKEE WI 53209
Darren Dawson	director	C/O METHODE ELECTRONICS, INC., 7401 WEST WILSON AVENUE, CHICAGO IL 60706
Joseph Elias Khoury	officer: Vice President	7401 W. WILSON AVENUE, HARWOOD HEIGHTS IL 60706
Kerry A. Vyverberg	officer: General Counsel	8750 W. BRYN MAWR AVE., SUITE 1000, CHICAGO IL 60631
Timothy Glandon	officer: VP&GM NA Automotive	7401 W. WILSON AVENUE, CHICAGO IL 60706
Janie Goddard	director	C/O ACON - 1133 CONNECTICUT AVENUE, NW, SUITE 700, WASHINGTON DC 20036
Tsoumas Ronald L.g.	officer: Controller & Treasurer	7401 W. WILSON AVE., CHICAGO IL 60706
Anil Shetty	officer: VP Methode & Pres. Dabir Surf.	7401 WEST WILSON AVENUE, CHICAGO IL 60706
Kevin Michael Martin	officer: Vice President, North America	8750 WEST BRYN MAWR AVENUE, SUITE 1000, CHICAGO IL 60631
Mary A Lindsey	director	6565 N. MACARTHUR BLVD., SUITE 800, IRVING TX 75039
Therese M Bobek	director	685 SKYE LN, INVERNESS IL 60010
David P Blom	director	200 OLD WILSON BRIDGE RD, COLUMBUS OH 43085