LifeStance Health Group (LifeStance Health Group) Predictability Rank

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What is LifeStance Health Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

LifeStance Health Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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LifeStance Health Group (LifeStance Health Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » LifeStance Health Group Inc (NAS:LFST) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4800 North Scottsdale Road, Suite 6000, Scottsdale, AZ, USA, AZ 85251

Website

https://www.lifestance.com

LifeStance Health Group Inc is a provider of virtual and in-person outpatient mental health care for children, adolescents and adults experiencing a variety of mental health conditions.

Executives

Kevin Michael Mullins	officer: Chief Development Officer	4800 N. SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 6000, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85251
Paula Cipollone	officer: See Remarks	4800 N. SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 6000, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85251
Warren Gouk	officer: Chief Administrative Officer	4800 N. SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 6000, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85251
Ann Varanakis	officer: Chief People Officer	4800 N. SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 6000, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85251
Anisha Patel-dunn	officer: Chief Medical Officer	4800 N. SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 6000, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85251
Ryan Pardo	officer: See Remarks	4800 N. SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 6000, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85251
Danish J. Qureshi	officer: Chief Growth Officer	4800 N. SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 6000, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85251
Pablo Pantaleoni	officer: Chief Digital Officer	4800 N. SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 6000, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85251
David Bourdon	officer: Chief Financial Officer	6303 COWBOYS WAY, SUITE 350, FRISCO TX 75034
Kenneth A Burdick	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	6705 ROCKLEDGE DR, SUITE 900, BETHESDA MD 20817
Felicia Gorcyca	officer: Chief People Officer	4800 N. SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 6000, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85251
Michael K. Lester	director, officer: See Remarks	4800 N. SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 6000, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85251
Gwen H. Booth	officer: Chief Operating Officer	4800 N. SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 6000, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85251
Jesse Michael Bruff	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3100 HANSEN WAY, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Tpg Gp A, Llc	10 percent owner	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102