Luminar Technologies (Luminar Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is Luminar Technologies Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Luminar Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Luminar Technologies (Luminar Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Luminar Technologies Inc (NAS:LAZR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

LAZR:Mexico 9FS:Germany

Address

2603 Discovery Drive, Suite 100, Orlando, FL, USA, 32826

Website

https://www.luminartech.com

Luminar Technologies Inc is an autonomous vehicle sensor and software company with the vision to make autonomy safe and ubiquitous by delivering lidar and associated software that meets the industry's stringent performance, safety, and economic requirements. It operates its business through the following segment: (1) Autonomy Solutions and (2) Components. The majority of revenue is earned from the Autonomy Solutions segment.

Executives

Thomas Fennimore	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O LUMINAR TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 2603 DISCOVERY DRIVE, SUITE 100, ORLANDO FL 32826
Alan Prescott	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O LUMINAR TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 2603 DISCOVERY DRIVE, SUITE 100, ORLANDO FL 32826
Austin Russell	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairperson, President & CEO	C/O LUMINAR TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 2603 DISCOVERY DRIVE, SUITE 100, ORLANDO FL 32826
Jun Hong Heng	director	C/O CRESCENT COVE ACQUISITION CORP., 530 BUSH STREET, SUITE 703, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94108
Mary Lou Jepsen	director	21557 TELEGRAPH ROAD, SOUTHFIELD MI 48033
Aeg Holdings, Llc	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	6260 LOOKOUT RD., BOULDER CO 80301
Daniel David Tempesta	director	ONE WAYSIDE ROAD, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Katherine A Martin	director	C/O NUANCE COMMUNICATIONS, INC., ONE WAYSIDE ROAD, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Matthew Simoncini	director	21557 TELEGRAPH ROAD, SOUTHFIELD MI 48034
Shaun Maguire	director	C/O LUMINAR TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 2603 DISCOVERY DRIVE, SUITE 100, ORLANDO FL 32826
M. Scott Faris	officer: Chief Business Officer	C/O LUMINAR TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 2603 DISCOVERY DRIVE, SUITE 100, ORLANDO FL 32826
Benjamin John Kortlang	director	2750 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Jason Eichenholz	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O LUMINAR TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 2603 DISCOVERY DRIVE, SUITE 100, ORLANDO FL 32826
Scott A Mcgregor	director	5300 CALIFORNIA AVENUE, IRVINE CA 92617
Andrew Mcbride	officer: CFO & Secretary	9800 WILSHIRE BLVD., BEVERLY HILLS CA 90212