Kinsale Capital Group (Kinsale Capital Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Kinsale Capital Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kinsale Capital Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Kinsale Capital Group (Kinsale Capital Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Kinsale Capital Group Inc (NYSE:KNSL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

KCH:Germany KCH:Germany

Address

2035 Maywill Street, Suite 100, Richmond, VA, USA, 23230

Website

https://www.kinsalecapitalgroup.com

Kinsale Capital Group Inc is an insurance holding company. The company is engaged in offering property, casualty, and specialty insurance products. It offers specialty insurance products for allied health, healthcare, life sciences, a professional, and a public entity. The company operates in only one reportable segment that is the Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance segment, which includes commercial excess and surplus lines liability and property insurance products through its underwriting divisions. The company generates revenues in the form of premiums and investment income.

Executives

Russell Frederick L. Jr.	director	1801 LIBBIE AVENUE, SUITE 201, RICHMOND VA 23226
Brian D. Haney	officer: SVP and COO	C/O KINSALE CAPITAL GROUP, INC., 2035 MAYWILL STREET, SUITE 100, RICHMOND VA 23230
Michael P Kehoe	director, officer: CEO and President	JAMES RIVER GROUP, INC., 1414 RALEIGH ROAD, SUITE 415, CHAPEL HILL NC 27517
Hatcher Robert V. Iii	director	C/O KINSALE CAPITAL GROUP, INC., 2035 MAYWILL STREET, SUITE 100, RICHMOND VA 23230
Steven J Bensinger	director	125 BROAD ST, NEW YORK NY 10004
Anne C. Kronenberg	director	C/O KINSALE CAPITAL GROUP, INC., 2035 MAYWILL STREET, SUITE 100, RICHMOND VA 23230
Bryan P. Petrucelli	officer: SVP, CFO and Treasurer	C/O KINSALE CAPITAL GROUP, INC., 2035 MAYWILL STREET, SUITE 100, RICHMOND VA 23230
Robert Iii Lippincott	director, other: Chairman	3152 CASSEEKEY ISLAND ROAD, JUPITER FL 33477
James Joseph Ritchie	director	C/O CERES GROUP INC, 17800 ROYALTON ROAD, STRONGSVILLE OH 44136
Teresa Chia	director	C/O KINSALE CAPITAL GROUP, INC., 2035 MAYWILL STREET, SUITE 100, RICHMOND VA 23230
Diane D. Schnupp	officer: SVP, Chief Information Officer	C/O KINSALE CAPITAL GROUP, INC., 2035 MAYWILL STREET, SUITE 100, RICHMOND VA 23230
Gregory M Share	director	THREE FIRST NATIONAL PLZ, SUITE 3800, CHICAGO IL 60602
Mark J. Beachy	officer: EVP and Chief Claims Officer	C/O KINSALE CAPITAL GROUP, INC., 2035 MAYWILL STREET, SUITE 100, RICHMOND VA 23230
Ann Marie Marson	officer: SVP and Chief Claims Officer	C/O KINSALE CAPITAL GROUP, INC., 2221 EDWARD HOLLAND DRIVE, SUITE 600, RICHMOND VA 23230
Kenney William J. Jr.	officer: SVP/Chief Information Officer	C/O KINSALE CAPITAL GROUP, INC., 2221 EDWARD HOLLAND DRIVE, SUITE 600, RICHMOND VA 23230