Helix Energy Solutions Group (Helix Energy Solutions Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Helix Energy Solutions Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Helix Energy Solutions Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Helix Energy Solutions Group (Helix Energy Solutions Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Helix Energy Solutions Group Inc (NYSE:HLX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CTV:Germany CTV:Germany

Address

3505 West Sam Houston Parkway North, Suite 400, Houston, TX, USA, 77043

Website

https://www.helixesg.com

Helix Energy Solutions Group Inc is an offshore energy services company. It provides specialty services to the offshore energy industry, with an emphasis on well intervention and robotics operations. Helix provides services primarily in deepwater in the Gulf of Mexico, Brazil, the North Sea, Asia Pacific and West Africa regions. It has four segments Well Intervention, Robotics Production Facilities and Shallow Water Abandonment. the Well Intervention segment includes vessels and equipment used to perform well intervention services primarily in the Gulf of Mexico, the North Sea and Brazil. It derives the majority of its revenue from the US.

Executives

Diana Glassman	director	3505 W SAM HOUSTON PKWY N, SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77043
Scott Andrew Sparks	officer: EVP - Operations	3505 WEST SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY NORTH, HOUSTON TX 77043
John Lovoi	director	3505 W SAM HOUSTON PKWY NORTH, SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77043
Paula Harris	director	3055 TORRINGTON DRIVE, BALL GROUND GA 30107
Brent Alexander Arriaga	officer: CAO and Corporate Controller	12330 BROKEN BOUGH DR, HOUSTON TX 77024
Thomas Mitchell Little	director	C/O MARATHON OIL CORPORATION, 5555 SAN FELIPE ST, HOUSTON TX 77056
Owen E Kratz	director, officer: CHAIRMAN & CEO	3505 W SAM HOUSTON PKWY NORTH, SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77043
Erik Staffeldt	officer: VP - Finance and Accounting	3505 WEST SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY NORTH, HOUSTON TX 77043
Nancy K Quinn	director	P O BOX 650205, DALLAS TX 75265
Amy H Nelson	director	2000 POST OAK BLVD., SUITE 100, HOUSTON TX 77056
Kenneth English Neikirk	officer: SVP, Gen Counsel & Secretary	3505 W. SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY N., SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77043
William L Transier	director	3505 W SAM HOUSTON PKWY NORTH, SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77043
Alisa B Johnson	officer: SVP, GEN COUNSEL & CORP SEC	3505 SAM HOUSTON PKWY NORTH, SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77043
Amerino Gatti	director	13131 DAIRY ASHFORD, SUITE 600, SUGAR LAND TX 77478
Geoffrey C. Wagner	officer: EVP and CCO	15835 PARK TEN PLACE DRIVE, HOUSTON TX 77084