Hims & Hers Health (Hims & Hers Health) Predictability Rank

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What is Hims & Hers Health Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hims & Hers Health Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Hims & Hers Health (Hims & Hers Health) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Hims & Hers Health Inc (NYSE:HIMS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

82W:Germany

Address

2269 Chestnut Street, Suite 523, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94123

Website

https://www.forhims.com

Hims & Hers Health Inc is a multi-specialty telehealth platform that connects consumers to licensed healthcare professionals, enabling them to access high-quality medical care for numerous conditions related to mental health, sexual health, dermatology, primary care, and more.

Executives

Andrew Dudum	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	2269 CHESTNUT STREET, #523, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94123
Oluyemi Okupe	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2269 CHESTNUT ST., #523, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94123
Soleil Boughton	officer: See Remarks	2269 CHESTNUT STREET, #523, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94123
Lynne Chou O'keefe	director	2269 CHESTNUT STREET, #523, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94123
Irene Becklund	officer: Interim PFO/PAO	2269 CHESTNUT ST., #523, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94123
Melissa Baird	officer: Chief Operating Officer	2269 CHESTNUT STREET, #523, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94123
David B Wells	director	C/O NETFLIX, INC., 100 WINCHESTER CIRCLE, LOS GATOS CA 95130
Alex Bard	director	2269 CHESTNUT STREET, #523, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94123
Ivp Executive Fund Xvi, Llc	10 percent owner	3000 SAND HILL ROAD, BUILDING 2, SUITE 2, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Jules A. Maltz	director	3000 SAND HILL ROAD, BUILDING 2, SUITE 250, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Christiane Pendarvis	director	2269 CHESTNUT ST., #523, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94123
Michael Chi	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	2269 CHESTNUT ST., #523, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94123
Somesh Dash	10 percent owner	3000 SAND HILL ROAD, BUILDING 2, SUITE 250, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Jack Abraham	10 percent owner	1 LETTERMAN DRIVE, SUITE C3500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Patrick Harrison Carroll	officer: Chief Medicall Officer	2269 CHESTNUT STREET, # 523, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94123