FTC Solar (FTC Solar) Predictability Rank

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What is FTC Solar Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

FTC Solar Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

FTC Solar Predictability Rank Related Terms

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FTC Solar (FTC Solar) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » FTC Solar Inc (NAS:FTCI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

6YK:Germany 6YK:Germany

Address

9020 N Capital of Texas Highway, Building 1, Suite 260, Austin, TX, USA, 78759

Website

https://www.ftcsolar.com

FTC Solar Inc is a global provider of advanced solar tracker systems, supported by proprietary software and value-added engineering services. It focuses on providing differentiated products, software and services that maximize energy generation and cost savings for customers, and to help facilitate the continued growth and adoption of solar power globally.

Executives

Robert Phelps Morris	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	C/O FTC SOLAR, INC., 9020 N CAPITAL OF TEXAS HWY, SUITE I-250, AUSTIN TX 78759
Ahmad R Chatila	director	3901 NO. FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Shaker Sadasivam	director	P O BOX 8, SAINT PETERS MO 63376
William A Priddy	director	C/O RF MICRO DEVICES, INC., 7628 THORNDIKE ROAD, GREENSBORO NC 27409
Cathy Behnen	officer: CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER	9020 N CAPITAL OF TEXAS HWY, SUITE I-260, AUSTIN TX 78759
Sasan Aminpour	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O FTC SOLAR, INC., 9020 N CAPITAL OF TEXAS HWY, SUITE I-260, AUSTIN TX 78759
Arc Family Trust	10 percent owner	9020 N CAPITAL OF TEXAS HWY, SUITE I-260, AUSTIN TX 78759
Kristian Nolde	officer: VP, MARKETING AND STRATEGY	9020 N CAPITAL OF TEXAS HWY, SUITE I-260, AUSTIN TX 78759
Patrick Cook	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	9020 N CAPITAL OF TEXAS HWY, SUITE I-260, AUSTIN TX 78759
Tamara Mullings	director	C/O FTC SOLAR, INC., 9020 N CAPITAL OF TEXAS HWY, SUITE I-260, AUSTIN TX 78759
David Springer	director, 10 percent owner	2718 LOYAGA DRIVE, ROUND ROCK TX 78681
Nagendra Cherukupalli	officer: CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER	9020 N CAPITAL OF TEXAS HWY, SUITE I-260, AUSTIN TX 78759
Sean Hunkler	director, officer: PRESIDENT AND CEO	C/O WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION, 5601 GREAT OAKS PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95119
Thurman J Rodgers	director	535 EASTVIEW WAY, WOODSIDE CA 94062
South Cone Investments Limited Partnership	10 percent owner	AVENIDA PRESIDENTE RIESCO 5711 OFICINA 1, LAS CONDES, SANTIAGO F3 7550000