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Altera (FRA:ALR) Predictability Rank


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What is Altera Predictability Rank?

3 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Altera Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Altera Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Altera's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Altera (FRA:ALR) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
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Altera Corp was founded in 1983 and reincorporated in the State of Delaware in 1997. It designs and sells programmable logic devices, HardCopy application-specific integrated circuit devices, power system-on-chip devices, pre-defined design building blocks known as intellectual property cores, and associated development tools. Its PLDs, which consist of field-programmable gate arrays, including those referred to as systems-on-chip FPGAs which incorporate hard embedded processor cores, and complex programmable logic devices. FPGAs and CPLDs are standard semiconductor integrated circuits that are manufactured as standard chips that its customers program to perform desired logic and processing functions within their electronic systems. With its HardCopy devices it offers its customers a migration path from a PLD to a low-cost, high-volume, non-programmable implementation of their designs. Its customers can license IP cores for implementation of standard functions in their PLD designs. Customers develop, compile, and verify their PLD designs, and then program their designs into its PLDs using its proprietary development software, which operates on personal computers and engineering workstations. Its products serve a range of customers within the Telecom and Wireless, Industrial Automation, Military and Automotive, Networking, Computer and Storage and Other vertical markets. Its geographical segments include US, Japan, China, Europe and Other. Its customers design electronic systems that typically use three types of digital integrated circuits: Processors, which include microprocessors, microcontrollers, graphics processors, and digital signal processors, control central computing tasks and signal processing; Memory stores programming instructions and data; and Logic manages the interchange and manipulation of digital signals within a system. It classifies its products into three categories: New, Mainstream, and Mature and Other Products. New Products include the Stratix V, Stratix IV, Arria 10, Arria V, Arria II, Cyclone V, Cyclone IV, MAX 10 FPGAs, MAX V CPLDs, HardCopy IV devices and Enpirion PowerSoCs. Mainstream Products include the Stratix III, Cyclone III, MAX II and HardCopy III devices. Mature and Other Products include the Stratix II, Stratix, Arria GX, Cyclone II, Cyclone, Classic, MAX 3000A, MAX 7000, MAX 7000A, MAX 7000B, MAX 7000S, MAX 9000, HardCopy II, HardCopy, FLEXseries, APEX series, Mercury, Excalibur devices, configuration and other devices, intellectual property cores, and software and other tools. The Company competes with PLD vendors such as Lattice Semiconductor Corporation, Microsemi Corporation, and Xilinx Inc. Other semiconductor companies with whom it may compete includes Analog Devices Inc., Atmel Corporation, Avago Technologies, Broadcom Corporation, Cavium, Inc., Freescale Semiconductor Inc., GlobalFoundries Inc., HiSilicon Technologies Company, Intel Corporation ("Intel"), Linear Technology Corporation