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FTAI Infrastructure (FTAI Infrastructure) Predictability Rank


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What is FTAI Infrastructure Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

FTAI Infrastructure Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

FTAI Infrastructure Predictability Rank Related Terms

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FTAI Infrastructure (FTAI Infrastructure) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Conglomerates » FTAI Infrastructure Inc (NAS:FIP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
TRC TUSK GTII RCMT FBYD SPGX NNBR HHS ALPP FUNN ADX:IHC HON TSE:8058 TSE:6501 TSE:8031 TSE:8001 ADX:ALPHADHABI MMM TSE:8002 HKSE:00267
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1345 Avenue of the Americas, 45th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10105
Website
https://www.fipinc.com
FTAI Infrastructure Inc is engaged in five segments; Railroad segment includes five freight railroads and one switching company that provide rail service to certain manufacturing and production facilities, the Jefferson Terminal segment consists of a multi-modal crude oil and refined products terminal and other related assets. Repauno segment consists of a 1,630-acre deep-water port located along the Delaware River with an underground storage cavern, a new multipurpose dock, a rail-to-ship transloading system, and multiple industrial development opportunities. Power and Gas segment is comprised of an equity method investment in Long Ridge, and Sustainability and Energy Transition segment is comprised of Aleon/Gladieux, Clean Planet, and CarbonFree.
Executives
Scott Christopher officer: CFO, CAO 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Kenneth J. Nicholson officer: President and CEO 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Adams Joseph P. Jr. director C/O FORTRESS INVESTMENT GROUP LLC, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
James L. Hamilton director 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Ray M Robinson director 1170 PEACHTREE STREET NE, SUITE 2300, ATLANTA GA 30309
Washington State Investment Board 10 percent owner 2100 EVERGREEN PARK DR SW, PO BOX 40916, OLYMPIA WA 98504-0916
Judith A Hannaway director C/O FORTRESS INVESTMENT GROUP, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Fortress Transportation & Infrastructure Investors Llc 10 percent owner 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 45TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105
Fortress Worldwide Transportation & Infrastructure General Partnership 10 percent owner 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105