Eversource Energy (Eversource Energy) Predictability Rank

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What is Eversource Energy Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Eversource Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Eversource Energy Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Eversource Energy (Eversource Energy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » Eversource Energy (NYSE:ES) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

PPL FE AEE DTE ETR CNP CMS WEC EIX AGR NEE SO DUK LSE:NG. AEP PCG D BOM:532555 EXC PEG

Traded in Other Exchanges

1ES:Italy NWJ:Germany NWJ:Germany E1SE34:Brazil

Address

300 Cadwell Drive, Springfield, MA, USA, 1104

Website

https://www.eversource.com

Eversource Energy is a diversified holding company with subsidiaries that provide rate-regulated electric, gas, and water distribution service to more than 4 million customers in the Northeast U.S. The company expanded its service territories with acquisitions of NStar (2012), Aquarion (2017), and Columbia Gas (2020). Eversource is exiting its 50% partnership with European utility Orsted to develop 2 gigawatts of offshore wind projects in the Northeast U.S. The company exited most of its unregulated businesses in 2006.

Executives

Van Faasen William C	other: Trustee	1499 POST ROAD, FAIRFIELD CT 06824
Gregory B Butler	officer: Sr. V.P. & Gen. Counsel	EVERSOURCE ENERGY, 56 PROSPECT STREET, HARTFORD CT 06103
Daniel J Nova	other: Trustee	C/O HIGHLAND CAPITAL PARTNERS INC, TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Linda Dorcena Forry	other: Trustee	C/O EVERSOURCE ENERGY, 300 CADWELL DRIVE, SPRINGFIELD MA 01104
Loretta D. Keane	other: Trustee	300 CADWELL DRIVE, SPRINGFIELD MA 01104
Penelope M Conner	officer: EVP-Cust Exp & Energy Strategy	300 CADWELL DRIVE, SPRINGFIELD MA 01104
Christine M Carmody	officer: SVP - Human Resources	800 BOYLSTON STREET, BOSTON MA 02199
Frederica M Williams	other: Trustee	C/O EVERSOURCE ENERGY, 300 CADWELL DRIVE, SPRINGFIELD MA 01104
John M. Moreira	officer: EVP, CFO and Treasurer	300 CADWELL DRIVE, SPRINGFIELD MA 01104
Hunt James W Iii	officer: EVP-Corp Rel & Sustainability	300 CADWELL DRIVE, SPRINGFIELD MA 01104
Cleveland Cotton M	other: Trustee	EVERSOURCE ENERGY, 300 CADWELL DRIVE, SPRINGFIELD MA 01104
Jay Buth	officer: VP-Accounting and Controller	EVERSOURCE ENERGY, 107 SELDEN STREET, BERLIN CT 06037
James S Distasio	other: Trustee	C/O EVERSOURCE ENERGY, 300 CADWELL DRIVE, BOSTON MA 01104
David H. Long	other: Trustee	C/O EVERSOURCE ENERGY, 107 SELDEN STREET - LEGAL DEPT., BERLIN CT 06037
John Y Kim	other: Trustee	51 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10010