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Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund (Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund) Predictability Rank


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What is Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund (Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund Inc (NYSE:EDD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HIX SCM HPF MIY NAN RFMZ ARDC PFL FEN FOF BLK BX OSTO:INVE A TSX:BN KKR APO BK AMP XSWX:PGHN LSE:III
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
522 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10036
Website
https://www.morganstanley.com
Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund Inc is a closed-end management investment company. The company's primary investment objective is to seek a high level of current income, with a secondary investment objective of long-term capital appreciation. It seeks to achieve investment objectives by investing, under normal circumstances, at least 80% of its managed assets in emerging markets domestic debt. The fund's portfolio includes sovereign, quasi-sovereign, corporate bonds in emerging markets.
Executives
Michael J Key officer: Vice President 1633 BROADWAY, 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Brian Shaw officer: Portfolio Manager 1633 BROADWAY, 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Patrick M Campbell officer: Portfolio Manager 1633 BROADWAY, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Eddie Arthur Grier other: Advisory Board Member 11700 PLAZA AMERICA DRIVE, SUITE 500, RESTON VA 20190
Frances Cashman other: Advisory Board Member MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, 1633 BROADWAY 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Deidre Downes officer: Chief Compliance Officer 1633 BROADWAY, 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Patricia A Maleski director C/O J P MORGAN INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC, 522 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10036
Timothy J Knierim officer: CCO 100 MULBERRY STREET, NEWARK NJ 07102
Sahil Tandon officer: Portfolio Manager 522 5TH AVE, NEW YORK NY 10036
Jakki L. Haussler director 221 EAST FOURTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Nancy Everett director 1812 PARK AVE, RICHMOND VA 23220
Nystedt Bo Jens Andreas other: Portfolio Manager 522 5TH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10036
Warren John Mar other: Portfolio Manager 522 5TH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10036
Joseph C Benedetti officer: Vice President C/O INVESCO, 225 LIBERTY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10281
Michael Bozic director 400 THREE SPRINGS DR, WERITON WV 26062

Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund (Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund) Headlines

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