Duos Technologies Group (Duos Technologies Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Duos Technologies Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Duos Technologies Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Duos Technologies Group (Duos Technologies Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Duos Technologies Group Inc (NAS:DUOT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

7660 Centurion Parkway, Suite 100, Jacksonville, FL, USA, 32256

Website

https://www.duostech.com

Duos Technologies Group Inc operating under its brand name duostech, designs, develops, deploys and operates intelligent technology solutions supporting rail, logistics and intermodal businesses that streamline operations, improve safety and reduce costs. The company's main offering, the Railcar Inspection Portal (RIP), provides both freight and transit railroad customers and select government agencies the ability to conduct fully automated railcar inspections of trains while they are moving at full speed. It has also developed the Automated Logistics Information System (ALIS) which automates gatehouse operations where transport trucks enter and exit large logistics and intermodal facilities. Its segments are Rail, Commercial, Petrochemical, Governments, Banking, IT Suppliers, and AI.

Executives

Frank A Lonegro	director	500 WATER STREET, JACKSONVILLE FL 32202
James Craig Nixon	director	7859 SOUTHDOWN ROAD, ALEXANDRIA VA 22308
Kenneth S Ehrman	director	C/O ID SYSTEMS INC, ONE UNIVERSITY PLAZA, HACKENSACK NJ 07601
Ned Mavrommatis	director	C/O ID SYSTEMS INC, ONE UNIVERSITY PLAZA, HACKENSACK NJ 07601
Andrew Winslow Murphy	officer: CFO	C/O DUOS TECHNOLOGIES, 7660 CENTURION PKWY, STE 100, JACKSONVILLE FL 32256
Adrian Graham Goldfarb	other: Former CFO	7660 CENTURION PARKWAY, SUITE 100, JACKSONVILLE FL 32256
Norman H Pessin	10 percent owner	C/O LEVY, HARKINS & CO., INC., 366 MADISON AVENUE, 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Charles Parker Ferry	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	6622 SOUTHPOINT DRIVE SOUTH, SUITE 310, JACKSONVILLE FL 32216
Bleichroeder Lp	10 percent owner	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 47TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105
Edmond L Harris	director	500 WATER STREET, JACKSONVILLE FL 32202
Gianni B Arcaini	director, officer: Chairman & CEO	6622 SOUTHPOINT DRIVE SOUTH, SUITE 310, JACKSONVILLE FL 32216
21 April Fund, Ltd.	10 percent owner	Citco Fund Services (Cayman Islands) Ltd, Regatta Office Park West Bay Road, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1205
Brian L. Pessin	10 percent owner	310 EAST 75TH STREET, APT. 2A, NEW YORK NY 10021
Sandra F Pessin	10 percent owner	C/O NORMAN PESSIN, 366 MADISON AVENUE, 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Weeks Connie L.	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	6858 PLUM LAKE LN. E., JACKSONVILLE FL 32222