Creatd (Creatd) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2020. Start your Free Trial

What is Creatd Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Creatd Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Creatd Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Creatd's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Creatd (Creatd) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » Creatd Inc (OTCPK:CRTD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

419 Lafayette Street, 6th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10003

Website

https://www.creatd.com

Jerrick Media Holdings Inc is a technology and digital media company. It develops and markets branded digital content and e-commerce properties. It is also produces and distributes premium digital media across multiple platforms for targeted demographics.

Executives

Jeremy Frommer	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	202 S. DEAN STREET, ENGLEWOOD NJ 07631
Justin Fontaine Maury	officer: President	75 STERLING BLVD APT. 543, ENGLEWOOD NJ 07631
Chelsea Pullano	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	C/O JERRICK MEDIA HOLDINGS, INC., 2050 CENTER AVENUE, SUITE 640, FORT LEE NJ 07024
Laurie Weisberg	director	C/O JERRICK MEDIA HOLDINGS, INC., 2050 CENTER AVENUE, SUITE 640, FORT LEE NJ 07024
Bradford Justus	director	224 ROBIN WAY, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Lorraine Hendrickson	director	718 INLET WATERS CIRCLE, JUPITER FL 33477
Joanna Bloor	director	4343 SEQUOYAH ROAD, OAKLAND CA 94605
Eric Ellis Goldberg	10 percent owner	PO BOX 580, AQUEBOGUE NY 11931
Leonard M Schiller	director
Mark Richard Patterson	director	C/O JERRICK MEDIA HOLDINGS INC., 2050 CENTER AVENUE, SUITE 640, FORT LEE NJ 07024
Labrena Martin	director	2050 CENTER AVENUE, SUITE 640, FORT LEE NJ 07024
Mark Standish	director	C/O JERRICK MEDIA HOLDINGS, INC., 2050 CENTER AVENUE, SUITE 640, FORT LEE NJ 07024
Arthur Rosen	10 percent owner	50 RIVERSIDE BLVD., APT. 20B, NEW YORK NY 10069
Andrew Fleming Taffin	director	32 RIDGEVIEW AVENUE, ATLANTIC HIGHLANDS NJ 07716
Rick Schwartz	officer: President	202 S. DEAN STREET, ENGLEWOOD NJ 07631