Charles River Laboratories International (Charles River Laboratories International) Predictability Rank

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What is Charles River Laboratories International Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Charles River Laboratories International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Charles River Laboratories International (Charles River Laboratories International) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Diagnostics & Research » Charles River Laboratories International Inc (NYSE:CRL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CRL:Mexico RV6:Germany

Address

251 Ballardvale Street, Wilmington, MA, USA, 01887

Website

https://www.criver.com

Charles River Laboratories was founded in 1947 and is a leading provider of drug discovery and development services. The company's research model & services segment is the leading provider of animal models for laboratory testing, which breeds and delivers animal research models with specific genetic characteristics for preclinical studies around the world. The discovery & safety assessment segment includes services required to take a drug through the early development process, including discovery services. The manufacturing support segment includes microbial solutions, which provides in vitro (non-animal) testing products, biologics testing services, and avian vaccine services.

Executives

Victoria L Creamer	officer: EVP & Chief People Officer	164 PINE HILL ROAD, NEW FAIRFIELD CT 06812
Joseph W Laplume	officer: EVP, Corp Strategy & Develop	251 BALLARDVALE STREET, WILMINGTON MA 01887
Birgit Girshick	officer: Corporate Executive VP	251 BALLARDVALE STREET, WILMINGTON MA 01887
James C Foster	director, officer: President and CEO	251 BALLARDVALE ST, WILMINGTON MA 01887
Richard F Wallman	director	HONEYWELL, 101 COLUMBIA ROAD, MORRISTOWN NJ 07962
William D Barbo	officer: Corporate Executive VP & CCO	251 BALLARDVALE STREET, WILMINGTON MA 01887
Michael Gunnar Knell	officer: CSVP&Chief Accounting Officer	BRUKER CORPORATION, 40 MANNING ROAD, BILLERICA MA 01821
George Massaro	director
Shannon M Parisotto	officer: CEVP, Disc & Safety Assessment	251 BALLARDVALE ST, WILMINGTON MA 01887
Flavia Pease	officer: Corporate Executive VP	251 BALLARDVALE STREET, WILMINGTON MA 01887
David Ross Smith	officer: Corporate Executive VP & CFO	251 BALLARDVALE STREET, WILMINGTON MA 01887
Deborah Turner Kochevar	director	251 BALLARDVALE STREET, WILMINGTON MA 01887
Milne George M Jr	director
Stephen D Chubb	director	C/O MATRITECH INC, 330 NEVADA STREET, NEWTON MA 02460
George Llado	director	251 BALLARDVALE STREET, WILMINGTON MA 01887