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Bhatia Communications & Retail (India) (BOM:540956) Predictability Rank


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What is Bhatia Communications & Retail (India) Predictability Rank?

3 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bhatia Communications & Retail (India) Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Bhatia Communications & Retail (India) Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Bhatia Communications & Retail (India)'s Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Bhatia Communications & Retail (India) (BOM:540956) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Bhatia Communications & Retail (India) Ltd (BOM:540956) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
NSE:DCI BOM:504351 BOM:543976 BOM:532456 BOM:540361 BOM:531337 BOM:511401 BOM:511187 BOM:535205 BOM:538742 SNX SZSE:000938 TSE:4768 ARW XPAR:RXL NSIT AVT TPE:3702 TPE:2347 XSWX:ALSN
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Ring Road, 132, Dr. Ambedkar Shopping Centre, Surat, GJ, IND, 395002
Website
https://www.bhatiamobile.com
Bhatia Communications & Retail (India) Ltd is the distributor of mobile handsets and accessories. The firm is engaged in the retail and wholesale distribution of mobile handsets, tablets, data cards and mobile accessories through retail and franchised stores. The business segment includes: It is a growth-oriented company selling multi-product brands that also operates under stores and sells electronic appliances such as television, refrigerators, air conditioners, coolers, washing machines, and microwaves. Bhatia Communications markets and sells its product under the brands: Apple iPhone, Samsung, OPPO, VIVO, etc. Substantial revenue accrues from owned retail stores. It also offers technical expertise and guide to customers to buy the right product as per their needs.

Bhatia Communications & Retail (India) (BOM:540956) Headlines

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