American Axle & Mfg Holdings (American Axle & Mfg Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is American Axle & Mfg Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

American Axle & Mfg Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

American Axle & Mfg Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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American Axle & Mfg Holdings (American Axle & Mfg Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » American Axle & Mfg Holdings Inc (NYSE:AXL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AYA:Germany

Address

One Dauch Drive, Detroit, MI, USA, 48211-1198

Website

https://www.aam.com

American Axle & Mfg Holdings Inc is engaged in manufacturing, engineering, designing and validation of driveline systems and related components and chassis modules for light trucks, SUVs, crossover vehicles, passenger cars, and commercial vehicles. The company's segment includes Driveline and Metal Forming. It generates maximum revenue from the Driveline segment.

Executives

Terri M. Kemp	officer: Senior VP Human Resources	ONE DAUCH DRIVE, DETROIT MI 48211
Matthew K. Paroly	officer: VP & General Counsel	ONE DAUCH DRIVE, DETROIT MI 48211
Norman Willemse	officer: VP, Metal Form Prod. Bus. Unit	ONE DAUCH DRIVE, DETROIT MI 48211-1198
James A Mccaslin	director
Herbert K Parker	director	38505 WOODWARD AVENUE, SUITE 200, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48304
John F. Smith	director	ONE DAUCH DR., DETROIT MI 48211
Tolga I Oal	officer: President, AAM North America	201 ISABELLA STREET, PITTSTBURGH PA 15212
Alberto L Satine	officer: VP-Procurement	ONE DAUCH DRIVE, DETROIT MI 48211
Sandra E. Pierce	director	2555 TELEGRAPH RD., BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302
Miller William P Ii	director	20 S. WACKER DR., CHICAGO IL 60606
Michael Joseph Lynch	officer: VP Finance & Controller	ONE DAUCH DRIVE, DETROIT MI 48211
Michael K Simonte	officer: VP & Treasurer	ONE DAUCH DRIVE, DETROIT MI 48211-1198
Bowes Timothy Earl Joseph	officer: Senior VP Corporate Planning	2135 WEST MAPLE ROAD, TROY MI 48084
Elizabeth Anne Chappell	director	ONE DAUCH DRIVE, DETROIT MI 48211
Christopher John May	officer: VP & CFO	ONE DAUCH DRIVE, DETROIT MI 48211