What is Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (Aurinia Pharmaceuticals) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
4464 Markham Street, Suite 1203, Victoria, BC, CAN, V8Z 7X8
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc is a biopharmaceutical company. It provides products for patients suffering from serious diseases with a high unmet medical need. The firm is developing LUPKYNIS (voclosporin), an investigational drug, for the treatment of lupus nephritis (LN), focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS), and Dry Eye Syndrome (DES). Geographically, it derives maximum revenue from the United States.
Executives
| Robert T Foster |
director |
C/O CONTRAVIR PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 399 THORNALL STREET, FIRST FLOOR, EDISON NJ 08837 |
| Karen L. Smith |
director |
C/O JAZZ PHARMACEUTICALS PLC, 5TH FL, WATERLOO EXCHANGE, WATERLOO RD, DUBLIN L2 4 L2 |
| Jeffrey Allen Bailey |
director |
BIODELIVERY SCIENCES INTERNATIONAL, INC., 4131 PARKLAKE AVE., SUITE 225, RALEIGH NC 27612 |
| R. Hector Mackay-dunn |
director |
#1203-4464 MARKHAM STREET, VICTORIA A1 V8Z7X8 |
| Jayne David R.w. |
director |
#1203-4464 MARKHAM STREET, VICTORIA A1 BC V8Z7X8 |
| Jill Leversage |
director |
#1203-4464 MARKHAM STREET, VICTORIA A1 V8Z 7X8 |
| Daniel Billen |
director |
#1203-4464 MARKHAM STREET, VICTORIA A1 V8Z 7X8 |
| Joseph P Hagan |
director |
3344 N. TORREY PINES COURT, SUITE 200, LA JOLLA CA 92037 |
| Brinda Balakrishnan |
director |
#1203-4464 MARKHAM STREET, VICTORIA A1 V8Z7X8 |
| Peter Greenleaf |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
ONE MEDIMMUNE WAY, GAITHERSBURG MD 20878 |
| Joseph M Miller |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O CERECOR INC., 400 EAST PRATT STREET, SUITE 606, BALTIMORE MD 21202 |
| Stephen P. Robertson |
officer: EVP, General Counsel |
#1203-4464 MARKHAM STREET, VICTORIA A1 BC V8Z7X8 |
| Milne George M Jr |
director |
|
| Matthew Maxwell Donley |
officer: Ex VP, Intern'l Operations |
4520 EAST WEST HIGHWAY, 3RD FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814 |
| Scott Michael Habig |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
#1203-4464 MARKHAM STREET, VICTORIA A1 V8Z7X8 |
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