ProFrac Holding (ProFrac Holding) Predictability Rank

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What is ProFrac Holding Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ProFrac Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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ProFrac Holding (ProFrac Holding) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » ProFrac Holding Corp (NAS:ACDC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

333 Shops Boulevard, Suite 301, Willow Park, TX, USA, 76087

Website

https://www.profrac.com

ProFrac Holding Corp is engaged in providing hydraulic fracturing, completion services, and other complementary products and services to leading upstream oil and gas companies engaged in the exploration and production of North American unconventional oil and natural gas resources. Its operations are primarily focused in West Texas, East Texas/Louisiana, South Texas, Oklahoma, Uinta, and Appalachian. The company operates in three segments: stimulation services, manufacturing, and proppant production. Stimulation services, which generate the majority of the revenue for the company operate a fleet of mobile hydraulic fracturing units and other auxiliary equipment that generates revenue by providing stimulation services.

Executives

Thrc Holdings, Lp	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director by Deputization	17018 INTERSTATE 20, CISCO TX 76437
Farris Wilks	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director by Deputization	17018 INTERSTATE 20, CISCO TX 76437
Heather N Klein	officer: Chief Administrative Officer	C/O PROFRAC HOLDING CORP., 333 SHOPS BOULEVARD, SUITE 301, WILLOW PARK TX 76087
Robert J Willette	officer: Chief Legal Officer, Secretary	333 SHOPS BOULEVARD, SUITE 301, WILLOW PARK TX 76087
Matthew Wilks	director, officer: See Remarks	17010 IH-20, CISCO TX 76437
Johnathan Ladd Wilks	officer: Chief Executive Officer	17010 INTERSTATE 20, CISCO TX 76437
Phillip Blaine Wilbanks	officer: Chief Operating Officer	333 SHOPS BOULEVARD, SUITE 301, WILLOW PARK TX 76087
Matthew A Greenwood	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O PROFRAC HOLDING CORP., 333 SHOPS BOULEVARD, SUITE 301, WILLOW PARK TX 76087
Sergei Krylov	director	6500 WEST FREEWAY, SUITE 800, FORT WORTH TX 76116
Stacy Durbin Nieuwoudt	director	20475 SH 249, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77070
Gerald W Haddock	director	C/O ENSCO, 5847 SAN FELIPE, HOUSTON TX 77057
Theresa Glebocki	director	C/O TROPICANA ENTERTAINMENT INC., 8345 W. SUNSET ROAD, SUITE 200, LAS VEGAS NV 89113
Jo Ann Wilks	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director by Deputization	17018 IH-20, CISCO TX 76437
Farris & Jo Ann Wilks 2022 Family Trust	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director by Deputization	17018 IH-20, CISCO TX 76437
Randle James Coy Jr	officer: Chief Operating Officer	PO BOX 1966, PALESTINE TX 75802