Airbnb (Airbnb) Predictability Rank

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What is Airbnb Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Airbnb Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Airbnb Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Airbnb (Airbnb) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Airbnb Inc (NAS:ABNB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ABNB:Mexico 1ABNB:Italy 6Z1d:UK 6Z1:Germany 6Z1:Germany 6Z1:Germany 6Z1:Germany AIRB34:Brazil ABNB:Austria

Address

888 Brannan Street, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94103

Website

https://www.airbnb.com

Started in 2008, Airbnb is the world's largest online alternative accommodation travel agency, also offering booking services for boutique hotels and experiences. Airbnb's platform offered over 7 million active accommodation listings as of Sept. 30, 2023. Listings from the company's over 4 million hosts are spread over almost every country in the world. In the fourth quarter of 2022, 47% of revenue was from the North American region. Transaction fees for online bookings account for all its revenue.

Executives

Brian Chesky	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and Chairman	C/O AIRBNB, INC., 888 BRANNAN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Nathan Blecharczyk	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Strategy Officer	C/O AIRBNB, INC., 888 BRANNAN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Aristotle N Balogh	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O YAHOO! INC., 701 FIRST AVENUE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Jeffrey D Jordan	director	2865 SAND HILL ROAD #101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Dave Stephenson	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O AIRBNB, INC., 888 BRANNAN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Joseph Gebbia	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman - Samara & Airbnb.org	C/O AIRBNB, INC., 888 BRANNAN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
David C Bernstein	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	601 TOWNSEND ST, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Catherine C Powell	officer: Global Head of Hosting	PINEVILLE GENERAL OFFICE, 2030 DONAHUE FERRY RD PO BOX 5000, PINEVILLE LA 71361-5000
James Manyika	director	C/O AIRBNB, INC., 888 BRANNAN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Alfred Lin	director, 10 percent owner	2800 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Belinda J. Johnson	director	394 PACIFIC AVENUE, FLOOR 2, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Sequoia Capital Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	2800 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Sequoia Capital Fund Feeder, L.p.	10 percent owner	2800 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Sequoia Capital Fund Management, L.p.	10 percent owner	2800 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Sequoia Capital Fund Parallel, Llc	10 percent owner	2800 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025