Federal Signal (Federal Signal) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : $28.61 (As of Jun. 01, 2024)

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What is Federal Signal Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-06-01), Federal Signal's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $28.61.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Federal Signal's Predictability Rank is 5-Stars.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Federal Signal is -221.64%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Federal Signal's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

FSS' s Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 1.37 Med: 2 Max: 3.22
Current: 3.22

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Dividends Based) Ratio of Federal Signal was 3.22. The lowest was 1.37. And the median was 2.00.

FSS's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is ranked worse than
86.48% of 429 companies
in the Industrial Products industry
Industry Median: 1.25 vs FSS: 3.22

Federal Signal Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Federal Signal's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Federal Signal Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Federal Signal Annual Data

Trend

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Dec23

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

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24.26

21.57

22.09

28.93

Federal Signal Quarterly Data
	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23	Jun23	Sep23	Dec23	Mar24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															23.51	25.06	25.17	28.93	28.61

Competitive Comparison of Federal Signal's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Pollution & Treatment Controls subindustry, Federal Signal's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Federal Signal's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Industrial Products Industry

For the Industrial Products industry and Industrials sector, Federal Signal's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Federal Signal's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.

Federal Signal Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.50%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Federal Signal's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 5 years was 4.70%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $2.4795.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Federal Signal's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	=	Dividends per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Dividends per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Dividends per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

2.4795

11.5406

28.61

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
	=	(28.61	-	92.02)	/	28.61
	=	-221.64 %

Federal Signal (NYSE:FSS) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Federal Signal Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Federal Signal's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Federal Signal (Federal Signal) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Federal Signal Corp (NYSE:FSS) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FSG:Germany

Address

1415 West 22nd Street, Suite 1100, Oak Brook, IL, USA, 60523

Website

https://www.federalsignal.com

Federal Signal Corp designs and manufactures products and integrated solutions for municipal, governmental, industrial, and airport customers. It operates in the segments of Environmental Solutions Group and the Safety and Security Systems Group. The Environmental solutions group manufactures and supplies street sweeper vehicles, sewer cleaner and vacuum loader trucks, hydro-excavation trucks, high-performance waterblasting equipment, dump truck bodies and trailers. The Safety and Security Systems Group offers comprehensive systems and products such as campus and community alerting, emergency vehicles, first responder interoperable communications, and others. The company generates a majority of its revenue from the Environmental Solutions Group segment.

Executives

Mark Weber	officer: President-Envir. Products Grp.	1415 W. 22ND STREET, SUITE 1100, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Felix Boeschen	officer: VP Strategy/Investor Relations	1415 W. 22ND STREET, SUITE 1100, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Dennis J Martin	director	505 WEST FRANKLIN AVENUE, NAPERVILLE IL 60540
Lauren B Elting	officer: VP & Corporate Controller	1415 WEST 22ND STREET, SUITE 1100, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Ian A. Hudson	officer: V.P. & Corporate Controller	1415 WEST 22ND STREET, SUITE 1100, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Diane Bonina	officer: VP, Gen'l Counsel & Secretary	1415 W. 22ND STREET, SUITE 1100, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Shashank Patel	director	1 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE, RYE BROOK NY 10573
Svetlana Vinokur	officer: VP, Treasurer & Corp. Develop.	1415 WEST 22ND STREET, SUITE 1100, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Jennifer L Sherman	officer: VP, General Counsel & Sec.	1415 W. 22ND STREET, SUITE 1100, OAK BROOK IL 60523
William F Owens	director	C/O KEY ENERGY SERVICES, INC., 1301 MCKINNEY STREET, SUITE 1800, HOUSTON TX 77010
John L Workman	director	C/O HEALTHSOUTH CORPORATION, ONE HEALTHSOUTH PARKWAY, BIRMINGHAM AL 35243
Richard R Mudge	director	1415 WEST 22ND STREET, SUITE 1100, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Lowe Eugene Joseph Iii	director	13320 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Patrick E. Miller	director	C/O COMMERICAL VEHICLE GROUP, INC., 7800 WALTON PARKWAY, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
Samuel Miceli	officer: Sr. VP - Env. Solutions. Group	1415 WEST 22ND STREET, SUITE 1100, OAK BROOK IL 60523