What is FTAI Aviation Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, FTAI Aviation's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of FTAI Aviation's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Rental & Leasing Services subindustry, FTAI Aviation's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
FTAI Aviation's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Business Services Industry
For the Business Services industry and Industrials sector, FTAI Aviation's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where FTAI Aviation's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
FTAI Aviation Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | -8.31 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.02% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
FTAI Aviation (FTAI Aviation) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1345 Avenue of the Americas, 45th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10105
FTAI Aviation Ltd is a aerospace company .It owns and maintains commercial jet engines with a focus on CFM56 engines. FTAI owns and leases jet aircraft which often facilitates the acquisition of engines at attractive prices. It invests in aviation assets and aerospace products that generate strong and stable cash flows with the potential for earnings growth and asset appreciation.
Executives
| Adams Joseph P. Jr. |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
C/O FORTRESS INVESTMENT GROUP LLC, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105 |
| Ray M Robinson |
director |
1170 PEACHTREE STREET NE, SUITE 2300, ATLANTA GA 30309 |
| Paul R Goodwin |
director |
CSX CORPORATION, 901 E. CARY STREET, RICHMOND VA 23219 |
| Martin Tuchman |
director |
633 PROSPECT AVE, PRINCETON NJ 08540 |
| Eun Nam |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105 |
| Washington State Investment Board |
10 percent owner |
2100 EVERGREEN PARK DR SW, PO BOX 40916, OLYMPIA WA 98504-0916 |
| Scott Christopher |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105 |
| Kenneth J. Nicholson |
director |
1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105 |
| A Andrew Levison |
director |
124 WEST PUTNAM AVE, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Judith A Hannaway |
director |
C/O FORTRESS INVESTMENT GROUP, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105 |
| Jonathan Atkeson |
officer: CFO and COO |
1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105 |
| Wesley R Edens |
director, 10 percent owner |
1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 45TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105 |
| Fortress Worldwide Transportation & Infrastructure Gp Llc |
10 percent owner |
1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105 |
| Fortress Worldwide Transportation & Infrastructure Investors Lp |
10 percent owner |
1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105 |
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